Live NFL Preseason Week 3 Fantasy Football Takeaways and Advice from Thursday's Games

Yes, Derrick Henry is old. By running back standards he's ancient. No active running back has more career carries.

You tell him he's washed, though--I'm not gonna.

It's not like Henry showed signs of decline a year ago--he gained 1,595 yards on the ground, averaged over five yards per carry and rushed for 16 scores on the way to a RB7 finish in PPR points.

Henry's ADP of 20 isn't unreasonable, and if you can get him early in Round 3 then Christmas came early.

Go stiff-arm a tree to celebrate.

Granted, if Matthew Stafford were to get hurt, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams managers would still need smelling salts.

But watching Ty Simpson make an off-platform throw like this makes one thing that maybe taking him in Round 1 back in April wasn't that bad an idea.

He's looked better than Fernando Mendoza so far. Much.

Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce logged 1,000 yards for the first time last year. He got a fat offseason raise from a Colts team that also traded Michael Pittman Jr. He entered the summer as Indy's No. 1 receiver.

Now he finally gets to practice.

Pierce's ADP has been on a steady slide—he's now being drafted outside the top-40 at his position. He was WR24 in PPR points last year. His deep-ball ability gives him the potential to win a week for managers.

He's also a high-variance wideout who has been hurt all offseason who plays for a quarterback who is coming off a torn Achilles.

If his ADP starts to climb, take a pass.

If you're a wise fantasy manager, you will wait to select a quarterback on draft day.

And Justin Herbert is just one of the reasons why it's a good idea.

Dak Prescott has essentially the same passing upside as Joe Burrow at a sizable discount. So does Herbert, who is available half a round after Prescott. After that comes Trevor Lawrence, who was fourth in fantasy points at his position a year ago.

Matthew Stafford was second in points under center in 2025. Bo Nix was seventh. Jared Goff was sixth.

There is no reason to pay up for "elite" quarterbacks. None.

...With the team's "top 2" quarterbacks nowhere near the field.

Have been a Cleveland fan for four decades. Experienced despair and misery in every way imaginable.

This is just mean.

I need a hug.

I legitimately do not know how many fantasy football leagues I am in.

The last time I counted I wondered if I need an intervention.

Nope, I'm not gonna do it. Not again.

You can talk up Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston all you want. Talk about his ability to stretch the field. His occasional monster stat line born of long touchdowns. His WR38 ADP.

But I'm not falling for his magic act. Not this time. For every explosion, there's a disappearance. He blows up on the bench and vanishes in the starting lineup.

As a best-ball option? All day every day. But in redraft fantasy leagues, let another manager drive themselves nuts.

Well this has to make you feel great about drafting Omarion Hampton as a top-10 running back over the weekend.

Hand him the ball, Justin.

For the record, on average there are 10 running backs being drafted ahead of Kenneth Walker III of the Chiefs.

Won't list them all. That would be tedious.

The upside is undeniable—at least if you saw Super Bowl LX. The 25-year-old tied a career high with 4.6 yards per carry last year and topped 1,000 yards on the ground. After signing a lucrative contract in Kansas City, Walker is set to see the biggest workload of his career.

That's the issue, though. Walker has never had even 230 carries in a season, in part because of nagging injuries. Last time was the first time in his career that he played in all 17 games, and he didn't become the featured back in Seattle until Zach Charbonnet got hurt.

This analyst wouldn't draft him ahead of Derrick Henry. Or Kyren Williams. And if you do, baking in a few missed games is wise.

Are the Cleveland Browns actively trolling their fans?

It should surprise no one that 49ers wide receiver De'Zhaun Stribling didn't play against the Raiders Thursday—although it would have been fun to see what his ADP did after another big game.

On one hand, Stribling likely still needs an injury ahead of him to become a viable weekly starter in fantasy leagues. And while he has been the hype darling of the 2026 preseason, he still hasn't caught a pass that counts.

On the other hand, San Francisco's lengthy injury history at wide receiver could create an opportunity for Stribling, who has impressed throughout the summer.

Stribling's ADP of Round 10 is worth the gamble given the other options available around him, but he's often going far earlier. At approximately WR35, the risk-reward profile becomes less appealing.

The argument can be made that Green Bay Packers tight end Tucker Kraft is being drafted close to his fantasy ceiling at TE5. The per-catch numbers were great last year, and Kraft scored six touchdowns in eight games.

But those touchdowns came on just 32 catches; Kraft has never been targeted more than 70 times in a season and he's coming off an ACL tear.

Those concerns are valid. But the Packers signing veteran Jonnu Smith Thursday is more insurance and depth than a genuine threat to Kraft's target share—Smith is a 31-year-old player who averaged all of 5.8 yards per reception last season with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

If you liked Kraft at ADP before, there's no reason to change that assessment.

Two years ago in Houston, Joe Mixon received a featured back workload—over 300 touches. He finished that season as a top-10 back in PPR points per game.

Mixon wasn't any better as a player at that point in his career than David Montgomery is now.

Montgomery has seen 300 touches in a season just once—with the Chicago Bears in 2020.

That season, he topped 1,500 total yards and ranked fourth in PPR points at his position.

Woody Marks' impact on Montgomery's fantasy value is being overstated.

And he's most assuredly underpriced.

Admittedly, this happened a week ago. But it's seared into my brain and I can't un-see it.

We have seen Jaylen Waddle top 1,000 receiving yards. We have seen him catch 100 passes. Watched him lead the NFL in yards per reception. Watched him finish as a top-10 fantasy option.

This isn't to say Waddle will check all those boxes in his first year with the Broncos. But the last one is all fantasy managers should really care about.

And that one's getting checked.

Waddle's WR21 ADP is a gift.

Kirk Cousins may be starting under center in Vegas for a little while.

Cleveland's preseason offensive struggles warrant caution in fantasy drafts.

Outside of Quinshon Judkins, whose workload could still provide value, Browns players are difficult to endorse at their current draft costs.

Few wide receiver situations have been more uncertain this summer than Las Vegas, but the picture has become clearer.

For much of the summer, the talk from Raiders camp has been that Tre Tucker has been the clear No. 1 target (not named Brock Bowers) for Kirk Cousins. He looked the part on Thursday, catching two passes for 22 yards on the opening drive against the 49ers.

We have seen Tucker make a fantasy dent—he exploded for an 8/145/3 line against the Commanders last year.

And with an ADP of WR61, Tucker is free in drafts.

Gotta be honest here—this analyst is just about out on San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Mike Evans, even at an ADP of WR29.

That price tag looked great earlier in the summer, when I was all about buying the dip from last year's injury-marred campaign and banking on a bounceback from one of the most robotically productive wideouts of the past decade-plus.

But Evans is also a 33-year-old who has had one soft-tissue injury after another this summer.

A bargain isn't a bargain if he can't stay on the field.

There are any number of changes to the Atlanta Falcons' offense this year. Potentially a new quarterback. A new OL coach in the legendary Bill Callahan. And more passing-game work for running back Bijan Robinson.

That got your attention, didn't it?

While talking to reporters, Robinson said the Falcons have used more screen looks this summer than a year ago.

"A couple new screens," Robinson said. "We've been doing the same kind of screen the past year, which has been effective. I love us having to add more screens, and screens that can go across the play. There are just so many things that we can do with that scheme."

It's not like Robinson's fantasy value can grow—his ADP is No. 2 overall, and he led the league in total yards in 2025.

But if you have that coveted No. 1 pick, this is something to file away when debating Robinson vs. Jahmyr Gibbs of the Lions.

There's no player who is the subject of more speculation right now than Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty. Once locked in as a first-round pick, his draft stock is all over the place after he suffered an ankle injury in practice.

That injury has been described as "more low than high," although Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak has been vague, saying only that Jeanty is, "on the mend."

Jeanty's Week 1 status is uncertain, but it doesn't appear to be a long-term injury. Given that, if he is on the board in the second half of Round 2, the dice are worth rolling.

However, this analyst is a lot more aggressive about also drafting Mike Washington Jr. if those dice hit the table.

Based on his preseason performance, Will Howard has made a stronger case than Drew Allar to be viewed as the better quarterback entering the season.

Carnell Tate was the first receiver drafted in 2026, but there hasn't been a ton of positive fantasy buzz surrounding him in the preseason—in part because in limited game action the Tennessee offense has looked…ungood.

Consider this a reminder that Tate was drafted fourth overall for a reason—and with an ADP outside the top-30 receivers, he's being drafted closer to his fantasy floor than the ceiling.

Rookie wide receiver Germie Bernard of the Steelers isn't going to have a lot of redraft fantasy value this year unless DK Metcalf or Michael Pittman Jr. gets hurt. Too many mouths to feed in a pedestrian passing attack.

But Bernard has impressed this preseason and is absolutely worth a stash in dynasty formats.

The good news for fantasy managers who have already drafted New England Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson is that he appears to have avoided a serious injury after going down awkwardly in practice and should be fine for Week 1.

The bad news is that there have been drumbeats for some time that not only is Henderson not going to be the clear lead back in New England, but that he has been soundly outperformed by Rhamondre Stevenson in camp.

The gap has narrowed, but Henderson is still being drafted ahead of Stevenson on average.

That's putting the cart before the horse.

Have a question regarding a player's fantasy value ahead of your draft?

Pondering a late-summer trade?

Wondering if the draft strategy you fancy will end in glory or ruin?

Hit me up on X at @IDPGodfather and I'll answer it here.