Heisman Watch: Will Any of the 2011 Finalists Be an NFL Bust?

This year’s Heisman Trophy ceremony will not only be intriguing to just college football fans; NFL fans should pay attention as well, because the next generation of NFL stars will be on full display on Saturday night.

Stanford QB Andrew Luck, Baylor QB Robert Griffin III and Alabama RB Trent Richardson all have the chance to be top-five picks in next year’s NFL draft if they all decide to come out, and they all have the look of elite pro prospects.

Still, because of the failures of former Heisman winners in the NFL, there are always some fans who are wary of drafting a Heisman winner.

Personally, I think Luck, Griffin and Richardson are all home-run draft picks and they were my three top-ranked prospects in my latest NFL draft rankings, but with quarterbacks and running backs especially, success in the NFL can often times be impacted by what team you end up with and what your surrounding pieces are.

Given that the draft is still over four months away, it's difficult to forecast where all three could ultimately end up. But the fact is, if Luck, Griffin and Richardson all decide to enter the draft after this season as expected, they’re likely going to end up on some pretty bad teams, and it will be interesting to see how each of them handles that.

How will Luck handle the whole Peyton Manning/Indianapolis Colts controversy that is already starting to surround the No. 1 pick?

How will Griffin handle all of the unfair backlash that he’ll likely face from the sports media, which still loves to bash successful college quarterbacks that don’t necessarily fit the prototypical mold of a tall, pro-style, drop-back pocket passer?

How will Richardson handle potentially playing behind a mediocre offensive line in the NFL, instead of the dominant front five he played behind at Alabama?

They’re all valid questions, but like I said, those three are some of the best-looking pro prospects we’ve seen at the quarterback and running back positions in years, and they’re all special talents.

The other two finalists, Wisconsin’s Montee Ball and LSU’s Tyrann Mathieu, are the two who I’m still not completely sold on as far as the NFL is concerned.

Ball, who is also junior, will likely bolt for the NFL after this season, as there’s really no reason to come back after the type of campaign he just had. But I think the ceiling for him is a second-day pick, as he’s probably not going to test through the roof at the combine. I wouldn't even be all that surprised if he ran in the high-4.5 to low-4.6 range in the 40-yard dash.

I definitely think Ball can find success as a pro, but I’m not sure if he’ll ever be a team’s true go-to back. But given the shift towards two-back systems we’re seeing in the NFL these days, he can definitely still find a role.

The 5’11’’, 210-pound junior certainly benefited from playing behind one of the biggest and strongest offensive lines in college football history, and there were times when he wouldn’t even be touched for 10 yards because the holes he ran through were so big. But I still think he showed enough for a front office to feel safe taking him some time later on Day 2 of the draft.

The Heisman finalist who I probably have the most questions about in terms of NFL potential, though, is Tyrann Mathieu, who is just a true sophomore and won’t be eligible until after the 2012 season.

Mathieu has truly had an All-American campaign this season, as both a cornerback and a punt returner, but the fact that he’s only 5’9’’ is going to hurt him in the eyes of the pro scouts.

Right now, I have Mathieu as my top non-eligible cornerback prospect almost out of necessity, but I also realize that there are plenty of young corners out there like North Carolina State’s David Amerson, Oklahoma State’s Justin Gilbert, USC’s Nickell Robey and Florida’s Marcus Roberson, who could all steal some of his thunder next year.

The Honey Badger may have taken the college football world by storm this year with his play on the field, but he didn’t exactly have a pristine track record away from the gridiron.

Mathieu reportedly tested positive for synthetic marijuana back in Week 8, which earned him a suspension for the Auburn game.

Let’s just say scouts are going to have some questions about his off-the-field lifestyle that he’ll need to answer next season.

There’s no denying that he’s a great player, and he’s got all the skills you’re looking for, but his lack of prototypical size and his off-the-field question marks could cause some red flags.

I don’t think Mathieu will be a top-10 pick like former teammate Patrick Peterson was this year or like current teammate Mo Claiborne will be in 2012, but he should definitely be able to keep the string of LSU first-round corners going if he decides to enter the 2013 draft.

But we can cross the Tyrann Mathieu/NFL-potential bridge when we come to it next season, when he’s eligible.

Right now, the focus from an NFL perspective is about the four junior finalists for the Heisman, who are all expected to declare for the 2012 draft.

I can’t see any of them turning into a true bust in the NFL, but I guess I will say that Montee Ball would be the one who I have the lowest expectations for, even though I think he has the chance to be a solid pro.

The real interesting debate that I think will arise in the next couple of months if Robert Griffin III ends up winning the Heisman Trophy will be, is Griffin just as worthy of the No. 1 pick as the current consensus favorite, Andrew Luck?

I say yes, and I think more people will begin leaning that way as the draft grows closer, and it's definitely going to make for some very interesting debates and arguments over the next few months.

The debate about who deserves the Heisman has been fun this week, but the argument about who truly deserves to be the No. 1 pick in the 2012 NFL draft could turn out to be epic.