NFL Playoff Picture: Projecting Brackets for Wild Card Round and More
With just four weeks left in the NFL regular season, there is no margin of error for playoff hopeful teams. It's officially crunch time and any ill-timed loss could end up making the difference between a trip to the postseason or spending January on the couch.
The biggest question now is how the playoff brackets in both conferences will look. There are no less than eight teams in both the AFC and NFC trying to force their way past other contenders to secure a berth, so there's still a lot to be decided.
Here are my projections for the wild-card round, first for the AFC and then for the NFC. Only one thing's for sure, it's going to be a tense couple of weeks for fans of teams on the fringe.
Byes: Patriots and Ravens
1 of 6New England Patriots
New England's schedule down the stretch is a cakewalk, which means Tom Brady and Co. should run the table to finish 13-3. There's still a lot of concern in Foxboro about the team's porous pass defense and rightfully so. The secondary allowed 353 passing yards to Dan Orlovsky on Sunday.
The Patriots could use that extra week of practice to help remedy some of the recurring problems on defense. Their offense can score points in bunches, but they need to be able to make timely stops if another Super Bowl run is on the horizon.
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore and Pittsburgh are tied atop the AFC North at 9-3. The Ravens hold the tiebreaker based on their two head-to-head wins over the Steelers, so it's their division to lose. Since both teams have one tough road game remaining, the Ravens are in good shape.
If Baltimore plans on surviving their playoff trek, they'll need more consistent play from Joe Flacco. The team has had a couple head-scratching losses this season and it's because Flacco played poorly in those contests. He has a lot to prove over the next few months.
(6) Jets at (3) Texans
2 of 6New York Jets
Just when fans were starting to give up on the Jets, they've won back-to-back games and appear to have rediscovered their rushing attack. As it stands, there are four teams battling for the final wild-card spot and the Jets have the most big-game experience of them all.
New York is at its best when Mark Sanchez is throwing the ball as few times as possible. That's why returning to a ground-and-pound mentality is so crucial. If Shonn Greene can perform like he did vs. the Redskins more consistently, the Jets should claim the final berth.
Houston Texans
Houston just keeps winning despite losing star quarterback Matt Schaub to injury. Arian Foster is back to his explosive self after a slow start to the season and it seems like the defensive additions made during the offseason are paying dividends.
The Texans have an extremely manageable schedule over the final month, so they should be able to secure the AFC South without much trouble. T.J. Yates doesn't need to be great for them to win, he just needs to limit his mistakes.
(5) Steelers at (4) Broncos
3 of 6Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh's only three losses have come against Baltimore (two) and Houston. Avoiding lapses against inferior opponents shows that the Steelers have enough mental toughness to make another long journey through the playoffs.
They would like to get a bye, but those losses to the Ravens will probably come back to haunt them in that respect. That said, they've done a lot of damage as a wild card in the past so an extra game is not going to phase a veteran team like Pittsburgh.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos have enjoyed a resurgence since Tim Tebow took over as the starting quarterback, going 6-1. Their chances got a big boost when Matt Forte got injured, as it makes next weekend's home game a lot more winnable.
It will be interesting to see if Tebow can maintain his current run of success over the long haul. He's done a nice job of giving his team a chance to win and Denver's underrated defense has taken care of the rest. It's been a wild ride to say the least.
Byes: Packers and Saints
4 of 6Green Bay Packers
The Packers continue to assert their dominance as the league's best team. Aaron Rodgers has made playing quarterback look easy, even though it's anything but. His ability to utilize so many different targets during a single game really separates him from the pack.
Of course, everybody is wondering in Green Bay can go 19-0. The remaining regular season slate is promising, but the playoffs are always a crapshoot. While right now there's probably slightly below 50 percent chance of a perfect season, it's increasing with every win.
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is undefeated at home, which makes securing a bye and two potential games inside the Superdome a big deal. While the offense can score points anywhere, the Saints defense seems to excel on home turf with the support of a raucous crowd.
If it weren't for Rodgers' amazing season, Drew Brees would have a strong MVP case. The two teams played a memorable encounter in Week 1 and it wouldn't be surprising to see them face off for a spot in the Super Bowl.
(6) Lions at (3) 49ers
5 of 6Detroit Lions
Detroit is reeling after losing five of its last seven games. Thankfully for the Lions their schedule gets easier over the next few weeks, which should allow them to rebound in time to ensure they don't waste a strong start.
By struggling against elite teams, there is certainly a question of whether or not they'll be able to survive in the playoffs. But if they can cut down on the dumb mistakes, there's no reason they shouldn't be able to hang with San Francisco.
San Francisco 49ers
After a season of futility, the NFC West will have a strong representative in this season's playoffs. Jim Harbaugh has done a terrific job of building the offense around Alex Smith's strengths, which has allowed the former top pick to shine.
The defense is allowing barely over 70 yards per game on the ground. That forces teams to become one-dimensional and leads to a lot of mistakes. They've developed a nice formula in San Francisco. Now they need to make sure it doesn't change once the playoffs start.
(5) Falcons at (4) Cowboys
6 of 6Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta's offense hasn't been as dynamic as it should be considering all of the pieces the Falcons have in place, but they've still managed to rack up seven wins. If Matt Ryan and his arsenal can work out the kinks over the next few weeks, they'll be a force to be reckoned with.
The Falcons have to play it careful over the next couple weeks. Games against Carolina and Jacksonville would seem like gimmes, which makes them trap game material. As long as they maintain focus, they should win both and easily secure a wild card.
Dallas Cowboys
Even though the Cowboys haven't been winning in convincing fashion as of late, they are still on track to win the NFC East. However, it's far from over since Dallas and the New York Giants still have to play twice in the final four weeks.
Getting Miles Austin—who was out for an extended period of time with a hamstring injury—back will be key. Laurent Robinson has filled in admirably, but when Austin and Dez Bryant are both working at full capacity the Cowboys' offense is a lot more difficult to defend.
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