NFL Picks Week 13: Spreads That Must Be Pounced On Before Vegas Adjusts

It rarely ever happens, but Week 13 features three spreads that make you go "hmmm." Make sure to take advantage before Vegas adjusts accordingly.

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com.)

Atlanta Falcons -1.5 @ Houston Texans

I don’t care how great the running game and defense of the Texans may be, T.J Yates is their quarterback. He went 8-of-15 for 70 yards on Sunday against the hapless Jags, but he only averaged 4.7 yards per attempt. It’s going to be a whole lot of dink-and-dunk and the Falcons are going to be fully prepared for it.

The Falcons own the second-ranked run defense in the league, allowing 83.5 yards on the ground, and will be stacking the box just daring the Texans to pass. As we’ve seen with guys like Tyler Palko, Curtis Painter and Blaine Gabbert, they started as backups this season for a reason.

There is no way Yates can keep up with Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and Roddy White for four quarters.

Key Trends:

Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.

Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in December.

Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games versus a team with a winning home record.

Prediction: Falcons 24, Texans 14

Oakland Raiders +2.5 @ Miami Dolphins

This odd spread is due to Oakland making the cross-country trip to Miami for a game that will start at 10 a.m. PST time.

That is just fine when the two teams are evenly matched, but not in this case.

QB Carson Palmer is getting more comfortable by the week and superstar RB Darren McFadden may be returning to action. Even if he’s not, Michael Bush is the best backup in the league. He’s much better than another Bush: Reggie.

He has had a bit of a career revival since ex Kim Kardashian got divorced and it’s made Miami a team that is just good enough to lose. A perfect example was last week’s Cowboys game where the Dolphins settled for far too many field goals and the defense couldn’t get a stop when it needed it most.

Let me remind you that the three-game winning streak for the Bills came against Kansas City, Washington and Buffalo.

Key Trends:

Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.

Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog.

Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Prediction: Raiders 26, Dolphins 20

New York Jets -3 @ Washington Redskins

The 6-5 Jets are in must-win mode and are certainly not taking the Redskins lightly. They really should, considering the ‘Skins have the 31st-ranked rushing attack and a QB in Rex Grossman that coach Mike Shanahan doesn’t trust with his lunch money.  This is a problem when you are going up against Darrelle Revis and the seventh-ranked pass defense.

Expect the Jets to build an early lead and bait Grossman into a plethora of mistakes in the second half that will make this one of the easiest picks of the week.

Key Trends:

Redskins are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Jets are 10-4 ATS versus a team with a losing record.

Predictions: Jets 20, Redskins 7