NFL Week 12 Picks: Home Favorites Getting Too Much Love

Week 12 got off to a rousing start on Thursday with one great game and two others that featured something noteworthy happening, but that was just the appetizer for today's slate of games. 

The slate of games today can't quite match the marquee matchups that we got earlier this week, though unlike those games, there will be some upsets that happen. And for some reason the home teams appear to be getting a lot of love. 

For the purposes of this article, we are going to look at those home favorites that are not going to be able to cover. Point spreads are always fun to examine because you get a good look at what oddsmakers and people making bets actually think about both teams. 

There are some telling stories in a few games today, so let's examine which teams will fail to live up to their betting hype. 

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-9.5)

I know that the Bills have been scuffling lately, and the Jets just beat them by 16 three weeks ago in Buffalo. But I always hesitate giving a team that can’t score a lot of points as much love as the oddsmakers are giving the Jets in this game.

The key for the Jets has been, and will continue to be, Mark Sanchez. When he plays well, the team plays well and they score a lot of points. Sadly, those games are few and far between with him.

The Bills lost their most consistent playmaker in Fred Jackson, but they still have a lot of good offensive players and will give their AFC East rival a run for their money. They may not win, but it will be closer than 9.5 points.

Prediction: Jets 20, Bills 17

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (-6)

After trying to defend the Chargers’ constant disappointments for the last year and a half, I have officially given up on this team. They are turning into Charlie Brown—they always seem to find the banana peel no matter what the situation.

The Broncos, meanwhile, have played like a different team in the last five weeks. Some are going to attribute that to Tim Tebow, but I got news for those people: He hasn’t been that good.

No, the key to the Broncos’ resurgence has been a violent, attacking defense that is forcing turnovers and putting the offense in a good position.

I have seen nothing from the Chargers to warrant making them a favorite in this game, and a rather prohibitive one at that. The end is coming for Norv Turner.

Prediction: Broncos 24, Chargers 20

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-7)

Is there really that much of a difference between the Giants and Saints? Neither team is great, I will give you that, but the Giants are every bit as good as the Saints and deserve more respect heading into their critical Monday night showdown.

The Giants appear to have started their late-season swoon a little early this year thanks to two straight losses. But one of those came against the 49ers, the second-best team in the NFC, at least record wise, and last week, the Eagles defense finally decided to show up and play.

The Saints don’t have the Eagles defense, and Eli Manning will relish the chance to lead his Giants to victory in the building where his father Archie played the bulk of his NFL career.

Prediction: Giants 28, Saints 24