NFL Week 12 Picks: Dubious Favorites Who Will Be Upset

A look at this week’s betting lines in the NFL reveals some…unusual favorites. These three teams may be playing at home, but don’t expect them to come away with victories on Sunday:

St. Louis Rams (vs. Arizona)

In this battle of struggling quarterbacks—recuperating Sam Bradford vs. John Skelton—the Cardinals have a couple of key advantages. The most important is the presence of Larry Fitzgerald, the best offensive weapon on either team here.

Also critical will be the injuries that have reduced St. Louis’ secondary to a bunch of overmatched reserves. Steven Jackson will make some plays for the Rams, but Arizona will come away with the win in another ugly game.

Tennessee Titans (vs. Tampa Bay)

Even assuming banged-up QB Matt Hasselbeck starts as expected, the Titans are cripplingly short on offensive weapons here. Chris Johnson appears to have reverted to form after one good game against the Panthers, and even Tampa’s inconsistent run defense isn’t likely to be the cure for what ails him.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, haven’t been as bad as their four-game losing streak (against four playoff-caliber teams) looks. Expect Josh Freeman to make enough clutch plays to carry Tampa to victory here.

Oakland Raiders (vs. Chicago)

Darren McFadden, the core of the Oakland offense, looks like he’s going to miss another game with his foot injury. Michael Bush has played admirably in McFadden’s stead, but he’s not the kind of game-changer the Raiders need against a Chicago defense that’s been on a roll.

The Bears’ QB situation is an obvious issue with Jay Cutler out, but backup Caleb Hanie acquitted himself well in last year’s NFC title game. With a full week to practice as the starter, Hanie will be good enough (if only barely) to let the Bears ride Matt Forte and the defense to their sixth straight win.