NFL Picks Week 12: A Thanksgiving Day Feast for Football Fans

This is the best slate of Thanksgiving Day games I can remember in quite some time.

The unbeaten Packers head to Ford Field to meet the Detroit Lions, relevant for the first time this century, in the early game.

The Dallas Cowboys host the late afternoon game when they tangle with the suddenly red-hot Miami Dolphins.

In prime time, we get a special treat—the Harbaugh Bowl. Jim’s San Francisco 49ers head east (again) to take on John’s Baltimore Ravens. In case you hadn’t heard (and given that I’ve probably heard breathless references to this about 500 times in the last 10 days or so, you probably have), this will be the first time in NFL history that head-coaching brothers will face off against one another.

Seriously, we get it. If I have a problem with the mainstream sporting press (OK, I have lots of problems with the mainstream sporting press, but that’s a column for another day), it’s the tendency to beat certain story lines to death until they drop dead.

It’s the “did you know Jerome Bettis is from Detroit” story line from the ramp up to Super Bowl XL all over again.

Redundant story lines aside, I haven’t anticipated a day of regular-season football quite as much as Thursday in a long time.

Green Bay goes to Detroit winners of 16 straight games, including the postseason. Detroit continues to be the Comeback Cats of 2011, setting an NFL mark by coming back from deficits of 17 points or more three times this season. Packers running back James Starks is nicked and may not go, shifting the burden of the running game to Ryan Grant (no word out of Titletown whether or not B.J. Raji has taken any reps at tailback this week).

The suddenly frisky Dolphins could be the perfect opponent against whom evil Tony Romo could reemerge. But while Dallas has shown less of a tendency at times to lose focus against inferior opponents, the fact that Miami comes in winners of three straight blowouts may help the Cowboys' attention span.

Then there’s the nightcap, with two of the roughest, toughest defenses in the league getting ready to spar.

And, hey did you hear? The coaches of the 49ers and Ravens are brothers! Glad to be able to pass along the knowledge.

Here are this week’s picks, with home teams in CAPS:

LIONS (+7) over Packers: I like the Packers to remain unbeaten, but only by the slimmest of margins. The Lions were awful last year and split with the defending champs, losing 28-26 at Lambeau Field and winning 7-3 at home.

Dolphins (+7) over COWBOYS: Another matchup where I love the favorite but hate the line. The Dolphin defense has been much better during their three-game winning streak and that should keep Miami within a touchdown.

49ers (+3) over RAVENS: The sentence I never expected to write: Alex Smith is more consistent than Joe Flacco and in a game where defenses will reign supreme, that makes the difference.

Cardinals (PK) over RAMS: Don’t worry, Steve Spagnuolo. Lots of guys go back to very successful careers as coordinators after completely flopping as head coaches.

Buccaneers (+4) over TITANS: Tampa Bay showed signs of life last week in Green Bay. Tennessee may have to start Jake Locker.

Browns (+8) over BENGALS: Cincinnati may be looking to take out some frustration in this one, but I am always leery of large spreads in rivalry games.

JETS (-8) over Bills: I almost liked Buffalo in this one. Then I learned Fred Jackson is out. That 5-2 start for the Bills seems like ages ago now.

Texans (-4) over JAGUARS: Matt Leinart gets a chance at career redemption. Call me crazy, but I think he’s going to make good on it.

Panthers (-4) over COLTS: What—I’m supposed to take the 0-10 team?

FALCONS (-10) over Vikings: No Adrian Peterson? No chance for the guys in the horned helmets.

RAIDERS (-5) over Bears: The Black Hole is an awfully tough place to go to make one’s first career start at quarterback. Enjoy the experience, Caleb Hanie.

SEAHAWKS (-4) over Redskins: I’m picking a team quarterbacked by Tarvaris Jackson. I am under no duress while doing so. Please help me.

Broncos (+6) over CHARGERS: I’m usually not one to question the people who know things in Nevada, but seriously—have any of you seen the Chargers play this year?

Patriots (-3) over EAGLES: This is called banking on Philadelphia to continue to be as consistent week-to-week as it has been all season long.

Steelers (-11) over CHIEFS: Kansas City couldn’t find the end zone right now with a GPS, an Army pathfinder and a native guide helping,

SAINTS (-7) over Giants: New Orleans is coming off a bye. New York is coming off a horrible performance at home against an arch-rival. Any questions?

Last week: 8-5-1
Season: 87-64-8