Oregon vs. Oregon State: Latest Spread Info, BCS Impact and Predictions

Oregon (9-2, 7-1) lost to USC last week, which makes its rivalry game against Oregon State (3-8, 3-5) a must-win situation. The Ducks hold a tiebreaker advantage over Stanford, so a win on Saturday will earn them the Pac-12 North Division crown and a trip to the conference championship game.

Where: Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore.

When: Saturday, Nov. 26 at 3:30 p.m. ET

Watch: ABC

Spread: Oregon -28

A good way to test a spread is using point differential against common opponents. For example, Oregon beat Arizona State by 14 and Oregon State lost to the Sun Devils by 15, which is a point differential of 29 in Oregon's favor.

Others include Arizona (Oregon +15), California (Oregon +45), Washington State (Oregon State +8), Washington (even) and Stanford (Oregon +48). After averaging the totals out, Oregon has a slightly more than three-touchdown advantage, which is smaller than the spread.

Combined with the fact it's a rivalry game and the Beavers are coming off their strongest performance of the season, Oregon State +28 would be my pick.

Over/Under: 63.5

Oregon won't stop attacking until the final whistle blows in an attempt to win some style points from voters. That should lead to extra possessions for both teams, and since the Ducks defense is giving up almost 400 yards per game, look for the game to go over.

Oregon Key Injuries

Questionable: TE Curtis White, CB Anthony Gildon, OL Mark Asper and OL Darrion Weems

Oregon State Key Injuries

Questionable: CB Sean Martin, LB Rueben Robinson and OL Geoff Garner

Probable: RB Malcolm Agnew and WR James Rodgers

BCS Implications

Oregon slipped to No. 10 in the BCS after its loss to USC. Among two-loss teams, the Ducks find themselves behind Oklahoma. Of course, they can still earn an automatic Rose Bowl bid with a Pac-12 Championship Game triumph.

To make that happen, though, they first must avoid an upset on Saturday.

Keys to Oregon Win

Establish running game—LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner are averaging nearly 230 yards per game on the ground and have scored 23 rushing touchdowns. Oregon State ranks 11th (of 12) in the Pac-12 against the run.

Get pressure on Sean Mannion—Oregon State's freshman quarterback has thrown 16 interceptions as he continues to acclimate himself to the college game. The Ducks have racked up 33 sacks and need to keep bringing heat to force Mannion into mistakes.

Keys to Oregon State Win

Get off to quick start—If Oregon takes a quick two-score lead, the potential for a blowout becomes exponentially higher. The Beavers need to take a conservative approach early in an attempt to quiet Oregon's rowdy supporters and keep the game close.

Use recent Civil War failures as motivation—The Ducks have won three straight games in the rivalry and haven't won four in a row since the mid-1990s. Oregon State's players, especially the seniors who are winless against Oregon, need to use that as a driving force toward an upset.

Prediction

Oregon 45, Oregon State 21