Fantasy Football Week 12: Top 5 Matchups to Watch

The top matchup to watch this week is the Detroit Lions defense versus Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers offense. Will the Lions be the team to ruin the Packers' perfect season? Will the feisty Lion defense knock Rodgers out of the game again like they did last year?

Other key matchups include Ray Rice of the Baltimore Ravens versus Patrick Willis of the San Francisco 49ers, and Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons versus the Minnesota Vikings' secondary.

Five of the six teams just mentioned are playoff contenders, so there are both fantasy and real-world playoff consequences of these matchups.

Aaron Rodgers Versus the Detroit Lions Defense

The first matchup we will look at is the Green Bay offense versus the Detroit defense. The Packers lead the league in passing touchdowns with 31 as well as average passing yards per game at 305.  The Packers have three top receivers in Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and Jermichael Finley. On the other hand the Lions defense has given up only 10 passing touchdowns and 193 passing yards per game.

That swing of 112 passing yards per game may be where this game is decided. The Lions have given up the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this year.

One troubling thing for the Packers is that they have given up 25 sacks so far, including 13 in their last four games.  For Detroit, defensive ends Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch have six sacks.

The Lions use the wide-nine technique to get pressure on the quarterback. They are able to do this without being vulnerable to the run because they have Ndamukong Suh anchoring the middle of their defensive line. The last time Aaron Rodgers played in Detroit, he was knocked out of the game. And this year the Lions have developed the reputation for being a little feisty, to put it mildly.

This game could be decided in the trenches between the Packers offensive line and the Lions defensive line.

The fantasy league implications are pretty strong.  Rodgers and his key receivers have been big fantasy producers this year. If the Lions can get strong and constant pressure on Rodgers, this could all come to a halt this week and could have multiple implications in your fantasy league.

Matt Ryan Versus Vikings Secondary

The next matchup we will look at is the Minnesota defense against the Atlanta Falcons offense.

Despite leading the league in sacks at 31, the Vikings also lead the league in touchdown passes allowed at 19.  This indicates that the difficulty is in the Vikings' secondary.

So the question is how will Matt Ryan and his key receivers Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez be able to take advantage of this?  

White showed signs of starting to heat up last week, but he still only has three touchdowns on the year. Gonzalez has seven touchdowns as he is a reliable, favorite target in the red zone. Rookie Julio Jones might be sidelined again with his second hamstring injury. Harry Douglas should take his place in the lineup.

Adrian Peterson should miss the game due to his ankle injury. That would mean that the Vikings would lose their best defense: time of possession. So I am looking for Ryan and his receivers to have a big week at home against the Vikings. Passing for 300 or more yards plus three passing touchdowns for Ryan is certainly a realistic expectation here.

Brent Celek Versus Patriots Linebackers

Another interesting matchup might be Brent Celek of the Philadelphia Eagles versus the New England Patriots linebackers.

The Patriots have been allowing around four catches per game and around 50 yards to tight ends.  Celek might need to take a leading role for the Eagles if they have any chance to defeat the Patriots. The Eagles' two top wide receivers, Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson are dealing with injuries, so they might not be able to play this week. So the Eagles might need to target Celek frequently. He has had 24 catches and two touchdowns in the last four games.

The fantasy implications here are that if the Patriots can contain Celek, a key third-down receiver, that would limit the Eagles' time of possession.

So Tom Brady would get the ball in hands more often and could be in for a 350-yard and three-touchdown night.  And when Brady has a night like that, it usually means that he brings Wes Welker along with him for the ride.

Andy Dalton Versus the Browns Defense

The quarterback ranks have been thinned with injuries to Matt Schaub, Michael Vick and Jay Cutler. Furthermore  Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Hasselbeck have injuries that might keep them from being at full strength this week. So in some leagues, Andy Dalton of the Cincinnati Bengals might be a potential starting quarterback.

But if you look at his opponent this week, you might reconsider.

Very quietly, out of the limelight, the Cleveland Browns have become the best defensive team against the pass. They are allowing on average only 166 passing yards per game and one touchdown pass.

Now the Bengals are in the playoff hunt and need to win this game. So do they gear their game plan more to rushing? If so Cedric Benson would be the beneficiary, and Dalton and wide receiver A.J. Green might be less productive than usual.

I don't have the answer to this matchup, but you need to think about it carefully if you have any of the players involved.

Ray Rice Versus Patrick Willis

The San Francisco 49ers have been very stingy against the run. They have allowed only 74 yards per game and have yet to yield a rushing touchdown.

In their victory against the Philadelphia Eagles, they held LeSean McCoy to 18 yards on nine rushes. They held Chris Ogbonnya of the Cleveland Browns to 37 yards on 11 carriers.

A large part of this success comes from linebacker Patrick Willis, who has been in on 85 tackles this season. I have Willis in my IDP league, and he has been a big producer for me.

Ray Rice has eight rushing touchdowns for the Baltimore Ravens this season and usually carries 15 or 16 times per game. Will the Ravens need to change their game plan in light of the 49ers' run defense?

One alternative would be to have Joe Flacco air it out, which is not something that has gone especially well for the Ravens this season. More likely the Ravens will try to use short passes to keep control of the ball. But this might not have too much impact on Rice's production, since he might be the target for a number of these short passes. Rice has 51 receptions and two passing touchdowns this year.

I think we will have a cat-and-mouse game between Rice and Willis this week.

I wouldn't be surprised if Willis is assigned to be Rice's shadow.  The most likely fantasy result is that each player will get his usual production total, but Rice will get more of his from passing plays this week.