NFL Week 12 Picks: Gauging the Likelihood of Every Upset Scenario

In the lead up to Week 12 of the NFL season, we ran down the likelihood of every upset coming to fruition: 

Detroit Lions over Green Bay Packers

The Lions already proved in 2010 that they can beat the Packers in Detroit. In that game the Lions defense held the Packers offense to just three points after Aaron Rodgers left with a concussion. The defense is even better this time around so there's reason to think that Detroit could end the Packers' undefeated season on Thanksgiving morning. 

Miami Dolphins over Dallas Cowboys

It's hard not to think of Dolphins-Cowboys without the snow and Leon Lett. But consider that both teams come into this game riding three-game winning streaks. Miami has completely turned its season around after an 0-7 start. If Matt Moore can keep his hot hand, the Dolphins could leave Dallas with their fourth straight win. 

Jacksonville Jaguars over Houston Texans

No Matt Schaub, no problem for the Texans? Let's not be so sure. Backup Matt Leinart hasn't been asked to do much of anything since his flop in Arizona. With the Cardinals, Leinart squandered countless opportunities to grab hold of the starting position. If he struggles then the Jaguars can beat the Texans at home.  

Minnesota Vikings over Atlanta Falcons

This looks like the least likely of the upsets this weekend. The Vikings won't have Adrian Peterson, which obviously hurts an offense that already lacks firepower. They'll be asking a lot of Toby Gerhart against one of the NFL's best run defenses. 

Buffalo Bills over New York Jets

It's not exactly surprising that the Bills came back down to Earth after a 3-1 start, but I'm guessing most didn't expect the offense to fall so flat. Ryan FItzpatrick has been awful lately and it won't get any easier against the Jets defense. If, and only if Fitzpatrick and the offense turns things around will the Bills have a legit chance on Sunday. 

Philadelphia Eagles over New England Patriots

There isn't going to be a huge talent gap—in fact, the Eagles might have a more talented roster overall—but this game will again come down to who executes better. That's been a huge problem for the Eagles in 2011. But if the defense plays as well as it has lately and Michael Vick can make some big plays without turning the ball over then the Eagles have a big shot at getting their season back in focus.