NFL Power Rankings: 3 Teams Overvalued by Bettors

If you’re looking to get educated on how Vegas point spreads for NFL games come to be, you can learn a lot by taking a look at the latest Vegas Rankings.

If you haven’t seen the latest, you can check them out on ESPN Insider (must have Insider subscription). The Vegas Rankings are essentially NFL Power Rankings, but they differ in that they pretty much evaluate teams based on how attractive they are to bettors.

One thing that is factored into these rankings is something called “Bettor Bias,” which is just what it sounds like. It’s how many points the public overvalues or undervalues a given team.

For the most part, the Vegas Rankings show that a lot of teams carry no bias at all. There are some, however, that bear a Bettor Bias that is a bit too high.

Let’s take a look at these teams, shall we?

Denver Broncos (No. 23, Bettor Bias: 0.5 points)

The Denver Broncos are the only team in the lower third of the Vegas Rankings that bears a positive Bettor Bias.

That, my friends, should not come as a surprise. Tim Tebow has a vast following, and not every member of this following is above gambling. We can talk all we want about Tebow being a role model, but what’s important to Vegas is that he attracts plenty of people who are eager to lay a few bucks down on him.

Is Tebow worth it? Goodness no. He’s won four of his five starts, but it would be foolish to say that he’s won them single-handedly. It would also be foolish to assume he and the Broncos are going to keep it up.

But people will anyway. The Broncos’ Bettor Bias is a classic case of perception taking center stage over reality.

Dallas Cowboys (No. 8, Bettor Bias: 1.5)

I wasn't surprised to learn that the Broncos are overvalued by bettors, and I'm not surprised to learn that the Cowboys are, too.

I'm one of many people who think the whole "America's Team" thing is a bunch of crap, but the Cowboys are definitely a team that tends to draw a lot of blind faith from a lot of people. It makes sense that this blind faith would be noticed by the Vegas string pullers.

Are the Cowboys worth an extra point-and-a-half? This year, no way. They're 6-4 and on a three-game win streak, but I wouldn't call them reliable, nor would I call them dominant.

Most people would probably agree, but the Bettor Bias suggests people don't care.

New England Patriots (No. 2, Bettor Bias: 2)

There are currently three teams that bear a Bettor Bias of two points: the Pittsburgh Steelers, the New England Patriots and the Green Bay Packers. 

Of the three, I think bettors are overvaluing the Patriots a bit too much. They're a good team (and a team that I like very much), but surely they don't deserve such a significant benefit of the doubt from the bettors.

My guess is that the Pats get the benefit of the doubt for one reason: Just as the Cowboys are the Cowboys, the Patriots are the Patriots. They have a reputation for greatness, and people key in on that. 

The only problem is that it's been seven years since the Pats won a Super Bowl and this year's team is a bit unpredictable. I like them, but I wouldn't bet my house on them.

That is, if I had a house. 

Zachary D. Rymer's Week 12 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Record
1	Green Bay Packers	10-0
2	San Francisco 49ers	9-1
3	New Orleans Saints	7-3
4	New England Patriots	7-3
5	Houston Texans	7-3
6	Baltimore Ravens	7-3
7	Pittsburgh Steelers	7-3
8	Chicago Bears	7-3
9	Cincinnati Bengals	6-4
10	Detroit Lions	7-3
11	Oakland Raiders	6-4
12	Dallas Cowboys	6-4
13	New York Giants	6-4
14	Atlanta Falcons	6-4
15	Denver Broncos	5-5
16	New York Jets	5-5
17	Tennessee Titans	5-5
18	Buffalo Bills	5-5
19	Seattle Seahawks	4-6
20	Philadelphia Eagles	4-6
21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4-6
22	San Diego Chargers	4-6
23	Miami Dolphins	3-7
24	Kansas City Chiefs	4-6
25	Washington Redskins	3-7
26	Cleveland Browns	4-6
27	Arizona Cardinals	3-7
28	Jacksonville Jaguars	3-7
29	Carolina Panthers	2-8
30	Minnesota Vikings	2-8
31	St. Louis Rams	2-8
32	Indianapolis Colts	0-10