NFL Picks Week 12: Fantasy Football Sleeper Picks

Normally when I’m analyzing potential sleeper picks for the coming week, I’m looking at breakout candidates from the week before as well as guys who have been putting up solid numbers week over week to the point where they are forcing you to take notice.

Only one guy stood out by that criteria this week (Kevin Smith) so in this week’s mining for waiver wire gold, I’m going to be focusing more on prime matchups for the coming week rather than swinging for the fences candidates who tend to be boom-or-bust kind of guys.

As always, my criteria for weekly sleeper selection are players owned in 50 percent or less of leagues on Yahoo! who look interesting for the week ahead as well as some long-term plays.

RB Kevin Smith (Detroit Lions)

Say hello to Kevin Smith—the monster of Week 11. A short two weeks ago, he was on the street drawing interest from zero NFL teams.

On Sunday, he broke free for 140 yards rushing, two touchdowns, 61 yards receiving and yet another touchdown—a whopping 38 points in standard scoring leagues. The Lions hadn’t found an answer to the injured Jahvid Best, shuffling backs around while putting extra pressure on Matthew Stafford to get it done through the air. By Smith finding the holes in the running game, Stafford exploded for one of his most productive outings of the year.

The big caveat to Smith’s performance was it came against the pitiful Panthers' run defense, which can’t stop anyone.

That shouldn’t stop you though from making Smith your No. 1 waiver wire priority going into Week 12. Remember, DeMarco Murray had his breakout performance against the hobbled Rams. Look how that has turned out.

Kevin Smith has a much tougher task on Thursday facing the 23rd-run defense of the Packers, but he should get the carries and the looks in the passing game to make him a force for the Lions offense.
 

Owned in 19 Percent of Yahoo! Leagues – 17 Percent Change from Last Week

RB Donald Brown (Indianapolis Colts)

Ah, the fantasy wasteland that is Indianapolis. I still don’t understand how a team can go from a playoff-caliber squad one season to falling through the NFL basement the next by losing one player. Peyton Manning should win the MVP trophy this season without ever throwing a pass.

There hasn’t been much to talk about concerning the Colts stable all season, but we finally have a play worth consideration. In Week 12 the Colts go up against the Panthers, who rank first in fantasy points allowed to running backs.

With Joseph Addai out nursing a hammy injury and Delone Carter suffering from a bout of fumblitis, Donald Brown has risen to the top of the Colts running back depth chart. He should have a very productive day pounding through the Panthers Swiss cheese line. He’s only a one-week play though, so be prepared to scrap him the second time has expired on the game clock.   

Owned in 8 Percent of Yahoo! Leagues – -2 Percent Change from Last Week

QB Vince Young (Philadelphia Eagles)

Michael Vick’s broken ribs elevated Vince Young into the starting lineup. Young certainly didn’t wow anyone with his three picks in his Week 11 performance, but he did throw for 258 yards and two touchdowns against a solid Giants defense to come away with the win.

Vick looks like he’s a longshot for Week 12 at this point and the Eagles get the New England Patriots, who have surrendered the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks to date. Assuming Vick is riding the pine, look for Vince Young to take advantage of the New England secondary to post big numbers.

Owned in 10 Percent of Yahoo! Leagues – 9 Percent Change from Last Week

TE Anthony Fasano (Miami Dolphins)

Does anyone know what has gotten into the Miami Dolphins? A few short weeks ago, they were duking it out with the Colts and the Rams to see who could be the worst team in the league, then they suddenly woke up in the last three weeks to stuff Kansas City, Washington and Buffalo. Their defense is playing inspired football, and Matt Moore is doing his best Tom Brady impression.

One of the big benefactors of this Dolphins renaissance is tight end Anthony Fasano. In the last three games, he is averaging 35.5 yards receiving and a touchdown. Moore seems to like his big target in the end zone.

On Thursday Fasano draws the Cowboys, who have given up the fourth-most points to fantasy tight ends, so it should be another big day for Fasano as Miami continues its magical run.   

Owned in 3 Percent of Yahoo! Leagues – 1 Percent Change from Last Week

RB Joe McKnight (New York Jets)

With LaDainian Tomlinson out and Shonn Greene suffering an in-game injury, Joe McKnight got to show Rex Ryan what he was made of, making the most of his opportunity by posting 59 rushing yards, 62 receiving yards as well as 39 return yards.

He was the brief shining light in an otherwise unwatchable game. Tomlinson and Greene are said to be back from injury in Week 12's matchup with the Bills, but don’t be surprised if McKnight’s strong performance affords him a healthier share of reps going forward.

He’s probably only a play-now candidate in return yardage leagues, but could prove a strong RB replacement candidate if Greene continues to struggle in the running game.

Owned in 12 Percent of Yahoo! Leagues – 8 Percent Change from Last Week

DEF Carolina Panthers

No sooner do I knock the Panthers' run defense for their collective ineptitude, then I turn around and tell you to pick them up for Week 12.

The awful Indianapolis Colts make this bizarre contradiction make complete sense. The Colts are serving up an average of 15.5 points to opposing defenses over the last four games. These weren’t defensive powerhouses either—Jacksonville, Atlanta, Tennessee and New Orleans. It’s time to cash in on the Suck for Luck sweepstakes.   

Owned in 3 Percent of Yahoo! Leagues – 0 Percent Change from Last Week

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