NFL Predictions: Scenarios in Which Cam Newton Fails to Win Offensive ROY

Cam Newton is playing great, but that does not necessarily mean he is a shoe-in for NFL Offensive ROY.

When Cam Newton was first drafted into the NFL, nobody knew he would have done as well as he has been this early in his career.  

There were those who were believers ever since he won the national championship in college.  On the opposite end, critics had their doubts just as many do when discussing a quarterback coming out of college.  Over the years of watching quarterbacks transition into the NFL, the careers in college did not always correlate to success under the Sunday night lights. 

Regardless of how well Cam Newton is playing, there is rarely a guarantee when discussing topics of the NFL. 

Too many factors are needed to go right in order for a guarantee prediction.

Although Newton is playing at a very impressive level for a rookie and quarterback in general, there are multiple scenarios that could hinder him from receiving Offensive ROY.  

Injury to Cam Newton

In a perfect world no one in the NFL would ever have an injury again.

However, realistically almost everyone either gets beat up or injured during the course of the season.  It is just natural.

With that in mind, if Newton ever incurred an injury during the season, it is most likely Andy Dalton (especially if he leads his team to the playoffs) would take over those honors.

Dalton is playing at a pace that no expert thought he would in his rookie season.  He is clearly ranking behind Newton in terms of production, however not by much.

If Newton slips, Dalton is ready to take over.

Too Many Losses

The offensive rookie discussions seem to gravitate towards the competition of Cam Newton and Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton.  

They both are playing at a high level and are undeniably talented players with futures in the NFL.  However, if both are playing at around the same level, what would be the determining factor?

If the statistics are similar by any means, it looks like win and loss numbers will come into play.

Dalton has led his Bengals to an impressive 6-4 record and is poised to take his team to the playoffs as a Wild Card in the AFC. 

Newton has an incredibly tough schedule ahead of him with the exception of the Indianapolis Colts.  He has yet to face teams such as the Saints, Buccaneers, Texans and Falcons.  

Injury to DeAngelo Williams

A good passing game is almost equally dependent upon the success of the run game (or at least the threat of one) as the receivers, line and quarterback.

Running back DeAngelo Williams is playing at a pretty high level at this point in the season that is forcing defenses to account for him and stack the box. 

In doing this, it allows openings in the secondary making Cam Newton’s life just a little bit easier.

Simply put, take away the running game, and Newton’s stats go way down because there will be corners in every direction rather than linemen in the trenches.  

Time

Traditionally rookies have a tougher time towards the end of the season due to various reasons.

One reason is that over time, the body wears down from the tough NFL schedule.  Eventually, the body needs rest and rookies especially have the toughest time adjusting.

Not only that but defenses have more film and more techniques to slow players down.  It is tough for a player, especially a rookie, to consistently put up over 300 yards of passing. 

As long as Newton does not hit a wall and significantly drop his performance, the award could still remain with him. If he hits the wall anytime soon, look for another rookie to come in and take the award from him.  This award is Newton’s to lose.  

Andy Dalton

Although Cam Newton is playing at an incredible level, there is another rookie not far behind him.

Andy Dalton, quarterback of the Cincinnati Bengals, is playing to a level that is giving his team a shot at making the playoffs in the AFC North.

If Dalton can do that, the scale tips in his favor.

Rookie quarterbacks are not supposed to start.  They are not supposed to do well and most importantly, they are not supposed to be able to lead their team to the playoffs after the starting quarterback had just left the team. 

In a new system and a much different level of play from the college ranks, Dalton is playing like a seasoned vet. 

Dalton is in control of his own fate.  If he can continue to lead his team to victory and play at the level he is currently at, the award might be a tougher decision than originally thought.  

Touchdown/ Interception Ratio

Currently Cam Newton’s touchdown and interception ratio is at 11 and 10 respectively. 

If those numbers start to trend in the opposite way and the interceptions rise above the touchdowns, it will be hard for critics to justify giving him the ROY award.

Newton is talented and in no way is this saying he is a bad quarterback or will have a bad career in the future.

However, for a player like Newton who has racked up a ton of yards but performed fairly average in the red zone, this award does not seem to fit his profile. 

Until Newton starts getting better touchdown and interception numbers, this award is still up for grabs.  

Offensive Line Production

The Carolina Panthers offensive line is really the unsung hero of this offense. 

Both the pass and rush offense is ranked eighth in the NFL and although the skills players have big contribution to this, it could not be possible without the play of the big guys. 

Cam Newton has been lucky enough to come into a team that has kept him surprisingly safe.  Although that is partially to do with the run ability of Newton, his line does an excellent job and maintaining ownership of the trench. 

If this O-line can continue to play the way it does, Newton puts up some big numbers in the future.  

Frustration

Cam Newton is not necessarily fond of losing nor is he used to it either.

While playing at Auburn and winning a national championship, his team went undefeated. 

Going into the NFL, he already has amassed eight losses and it's looking like it will be plenty more until the season ends. 

Being a rookie will make keeping a composed demeanor through the tough losses difficult.  It will be interesting to see how Cam Newton deals with the stress and weight of losing this many games.

Not that it is uncommon for a rookie to struggle with wins, but Newton is not used to it and it may affect him negatively. 

Newton will have to find a way to control his frustration and put up solid numbers regardless of the outcome of the games.

Doing Too Much

Being anxious for a game is good; it means that the outcome of the game matters and a loss is going to be taken personal.

Newton is a high-profile player and has been recognized for years all the way from his time at Auburn University. 

The tendency for rookie quarterbacks who have the talent to succeed is doing too much and ultimately hurting the team. 

This is not only in football and can be seen in sports such as basketball and more famously with Lakers star Kobe Bryant. 

Bryant has been known and accused of being too selfish and trying to do too much with the ball due to his belief in the lack of talent surrounding him.  Sometimes this hurt the team and other times it showed us how good he could be.

However, in both Newton’s games that he won this year, his stats were fairly tame and efficient.  It was in those games where he threw over 300 yards and multiple touchdowns that they lost.

This can be for plenty of other reasons but ultimately, it seems that when Newton has to do too much, his team suffers. 

When his team suffers, his chance to get rookie of the year starts to fade. 

On just talent, Newton has the ability to accomplish some incredible feats.  However, until his team starts doing better overall, his award is in jeopardy.