Bowl Projections: Why BCS National Championship Game Will Be All SEC

After a chaotic weekend of monumental proportions, there is a weird sort of calm that has followed the storm. In fact, we can be almost certain of two things at this point: one, the National Championship Game will feature a rematch, and two, it will be between SEC teams.

When the new projections come out, it is expected that LSU, Alabama and Arkansas will be the top three teams in the BCS. While it is not any guarantee who the teams will be, it's almost certain that two of these three teams will be in the National Championship Game, it's nearly certain two of them will be. 

Here are the possible scenarios, and why it's hard to figure a way around a SEC rematch for all the marbles. All of this is based on the presumption that Alabama beats Auburn, which is no guarantee, but it is the likely outcome. 

LSU beats Arkansas and Georgia

This is the most likely case, and should it happen then Alabama would still be No. 2 and the rematch most of the world doesn't want to see would be the one they watch. 

LSU beats Arkansas, loses to Georgia

If this happens, based on the strength of schedule they've already played, the likely scenario is that LSU only drops one spot in the rankings and Alabama moves up one spot. Still one versus two, just a different order.

LSU loses to Arkansas, beats Georgia

Due to the complex tie-breaking scenario, it is possible that any of the three teams could play Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. If LSU loses to Arkansas and then beats Georgia, that would mean they are either No. 1 or No. 2. 

The question would be who is the other team. If the three teams are separated by less than five spots in the rankings, then the team with the win between the top two teams goes to the SEC championship. Ergo if LSU only drops to No. 2 and Arkansas stays at No. 3—which is possible because LSU has such an advantage in strength of schedule—then LSU would go to the SEC Championship Game. Then, if they won, they would play No. 2 Alabama in the National Championship Game. 

LSU loses to Arkansas, Alabama beats Georgia

If Arkansas beats LSU and jumps LSU but not Alabama in the rankings, then Alabama would face Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Then, if they won they wold face No. 2 Arkansas in the BCS Championship. 

LSU loses to Arkansas, Alabama loses to Georgia

If LSU loses to Arkansas and Arkansas jumps them but not not 'Bama in the rankings, the Crimson Tide would play for the SEC Championship. Should they lose that game, then that would move No. 2 Arkansas and No 3 LSU in the top to spots in the rankings and they would rematch in the title game. 

Arkansas beats LSU and Georgia

This is easy. If Arkansas wins, and moves into the top spot, but 'Bama doesn't jump LSU, then Arkansas is in the driver's seat. In this case they would play LSU in a rematch for the title. 

Arkansas beats LSU, loses to Georgia

If this were to happen the that would mean that LSU and 'Bama were sitting in the No. 2 and No. 3 spots and it would be an LSU vs. Alabama rematch. 

That covers every scenario except one: LSU suffers an absolute beatdown and drops below the top three in the BCS rankings. This is a highly unlikely scenario. And again, this presumes Alabama beats Auburn too. 

When you look at all the realistic possibilities though, it seems like we're destined for an SEC rematch in the National Championship Game. 

EDIT: There has been some confusion as to how three SEC teams would be given a bid. According the BCS rules, 

No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections, unless two non-champions from the same conference are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS Standings.

There is a clear and specific exception to the two team maximum specifically addressed in the BCS rules. Should Georgia win the SEC and two of the other schools are ranked 1 and 2 i the country the first and second ranked teams would play for the National Championship and Georgia would play in the Sugar Bowl. 

This is by rule.