Best Bets in College Football's Week 12

Is sports betting frowned upon?

To me, it isn’t and within recent years, it’s drawing a bigger crowd and adding more excitement to the sports industry.

Try flipping through the sports section of a newspaper without seeing a game line. It’s just assumed now for a sports writer to include it on a game preview.

I heard a stat last week that blew me away. Only one percent of sportsbook aficionados win. Meaning 99 percent of winnings go to the bookie.

And you wonder why Vegas does so well.

While I’m no genius by any means, I do my research. I watch a lot of games. In my entry picks for Bleacher Report last week, I went 2-1.

Winning over 50 percent of your picks is success. It’s not as easy as it looks.

The Oregon Ducks shocked the books last week, dominating every fashion of their game against Stanford, winning 53-30 as a three-point underdog.

November 5 saw LSU enter Bryant-Denny Stadium as an underdog and leave three-point winners as a three-point underdog.

Which begs the question who this week's underdog pick is. Nebraska? Penn State? Kansas State?

While we may not see a matchup of two top-five teams, good games are on board.

Let’s get into my two favorite lines.

Clemson at North Carolina State: Tigers Too Much

Clemson at North Carolina State:

Strolling into Raleigh Saturday afternoon is Clemson to see North Carolina State. The Tigers weeks ago were a contender for the National Championship game. But now, they’re getting no love.

The No. 7-ranked team in the country is only a one-touchdown favorite. Think about that. Something is fishy here, and I’m not buying into a bad, 5-5 Wolfpack team.

Blindly looking, the low line may be a result of the super freshman Sammy Watkins having a bum shoulder and being limited in practice this week. Or that NC State is 4-1 at home.

I see two different teams. Clemson flies. Speed-wise, they have a group of players that could rival athletes of Oklahoma State and Oregon.

The Tigers average over 470 yards a game. They score over 37 points a game. They spread it out and confuse defenses, which makes me wonder if the Wolfpack defense is up to the task. Can they sustain the road visitors?

I don’t see Clemson vulnerable to a loss. Matter of fact, I see a one-sided affair.

This is Clemson’s most recent shot for a 10-win season, which would be a first since 1990. That’s something to play up to.

I see Clemson jumping up and playing big when it matters. Remember, a BCS Bowl is still in the picture for Clemson. All they have to do is keep the wheels moving forward. 

My pick: Clemson -7.5 

Kansas State at Texas: Klein Will Torch Longhorns

Kansas State at Texas

I've learned this season that you can't be afraid of points. When chasing after an over/under total, don't even fret. This college football season has been full of scoreboards lighting up.

The surprise team to me is Kansas State at 8-2. Welcome back to the scene, Bill Snyder.

While the Wildcats might now blow you away with athleticism, don't blink on this offense. They come down the field in a flash and score. K-State scores 35 points a game, fifth best in a conference full of end-zone goers.

On a nice rebound within recent weeks has been Texas, after their season seemed doomed following the Red River Rivalry. The Longhorns, though not your typical Longhorns, are still 6-3 and bowl eligible, unlike last year.

The five-point loss for Texas last week was u-g-l-y. You have to believe Mack Brown got after his team this week and whooped them in practice.

Texas is normally a calm and cool team. They make plays.

Even without Fozzy Whittaker, this team has talent. They're Texas—a notoriously deep and talented squad.

Both of these offenses like to have the ball in their hands and play well on first and second downs.

For Kansas State, when a play breaks down, their strength is having quarterback Colin Klein find a gap and run.

And, boy, does he.

Klein has 24 rushing touchdowns on the year, a stat that will blow you away. He alone scores three touchdowns a game through the air and on the ground.

I don't see defense here.

The cold Midwest weather staying north is good too. Playing in Texas favors any offense.

This total is low for good offenses.

My pick: Kansas State and Texas Total over 53.5 points

Other plays: Wisconsin -15, Houston -20, Georgia Tech -11, Oregon and USC Total over 68.5 points.

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