NFL Week 11 Picks: Why No Spread Is Large Enough for Patriots vs. Chiefs

The New England Patriots are going to make the Kansas City Chiefs contemplate why they play the game of football.

Tom Brady vs. Tyler Palko just isn’t fair.

Brady may be the greatest QB of all time. Palko has 13 career NFL passes to his name. The Patriots are 9-1 in their last 10 Monday Night Football games. The Chiefs can’t beat a team that completed two passes against them.

The Chiefs are without their starting QB (Matt Cassel) and running back (Jamaal Charles) and are coming off back-to-back losses to teams with a combined 6-12 record.

The Pats are going to bring the pressure after having a lot of success with it a week ago against the Jets. Andre Carter isn’t going to register 4.5 sacks again, but you can expect Palko to be running for his life for the majority of the game. This helps shield the horrific Pats pass defense.

The Pats offense is back on track after three straight weeks of failing to surpass the 20-point hurdle, and expect the killer combo of tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez to tear up the middle of a soft Chiefs defense. There is no defender in the Chiefs secondary that will be able to contain WR Wes Welker either.

Unless the Chiefs special teams play the game of their life, it’s hard to draw up a situation where the Patriots don’t win by at least three touchdowns. They will easily cover the 14-point spread.

Key Trends:

Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

Patriots are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.

Prediction: Patriots 41, Chiefs 20