Mississippi State vs. Arkansas: Latest Spread Info, BCS Impact and Predictions

The No. 6 Arkansas Razorbacks are two wins away from potentially turning the BCS computers upside down.

But before they start thinking about the No. 1 LSU Tigers, they need to remain focused on Mississippi State this Saturday.

The Bulldogs are in the midst of another disappointing season that really doesn’t have one memorable moment about it.

That can all change this weekend in Little Rock. Here is everything you need to know about this SEC West clash.  

Where: War Memorial Stadium, Little Rock, Ark.

When: 3:30 p.m. EST

Watch: CBS

Spread: Arkansas -13 (Line courtesy of Covers.com)

The Razorbacks have received the least amount of hype for a sixth-ranked team in history.

While their road conference wins have all been very close, this team has been dominate at home. Sure this isn’t a true home game, but you can bet War Memorial Stadium is going to be jammed pack full of Hogs. They beat Auburn by 24, South Carolina by 16, and Tennessee by 42 in the state of Arkansas.

Do you see a trend here?

This game has the potential to get out of hand very quickly.

Key Trends (Spread):

Home team is 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings.

Razorbacks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 conference games.

Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in Arkansas.

Over/Under: 53.5

The Razorbacks are going to put up their fair share of points. They are currently 13^th in the nation in scoring, averaging 38.8 points a game, but I think the difference will be on their defense.

The 30^th ranked unit feasts on lesser opponents and the Bulldogs certainly qualify. Expect Bulldogs QB Chris Relf, who hasn’t shown much of anything this season, to turn the ball over multiple times, which will keep their score under 20.

Key Trends (Over/Under):

Under is 4-1 in Bulldogs last five games following a S.U. loss.

Over is 4-1 in Bulldogs last five games following a ATS win.

Under is 5-0 in Razorbacks last five games on turf.

Key Mississippi State Injuries:

QB Chris Relf, Questionable (Concussion)

Key Arkansas Injuries:

WR Marquel Wade, Questionable (Suspension)

T Mitch Smothers, Questionable (Undisclosed)

BCS/Top 25 Poll Implications:

Arkansas can only hope for upsets at this point. With a mere five teams in front of them, you have to hope for one of them to lose if you’re a Hog fan. A win insures a bump up past the loser (as long as it’s not No. 1 LSU).

A loss will send the Razorbacks plummeting down the rankings, probably the 11-15 range. At this point in the year, losing a game to a lesser opponent is a death sentence.

MSU isn’t even close to reaching the Top 25.

Keys to Mississippi State Win:

Keep the Razorbacks offense off the field.

The longer the Bulldogs hang around, the better chance they have of pulling off the upset. Relf’s numbers aren’t special (1013 yards, seven TDs, six INTs), but he does have the ability to run. He could put up big numbers on a so-so Razorback defense.

This all comes with the disclaimer that he actually plays, after suffering a concussion last week.

Keys to Arkansas Win:

The Razorbacks had a nasty midseason habit of having to comeback from first-half deficits, but seemed to have straightened things out recently.

As long as their defense doesn’t take two quarters to settle in, this is a complete mismatch.

The Arkansas offense is going to dominate behind a big game by QB Tyler Wilson (2,850 yards, 18 TDs, five INTs).

Prediction:

A few facts to note:

MSU Running back Vick Ballard needs 189 rushing yards to reach 1,000 for the season.

The Bulldogs’ five victories have come against teams with a combined record of 19-31; their five losses came against teams with a combined mark of 41-9.

With so much on the line, expect the Razorbacks to come out of the gates firing early. With a comfortable second-half lead, the clock will be bleed and the stage will be set for a showdown with LSU.

Final Score: Arkansas 31 Mississippi State 14