Week 11 NFL Picks: Predictions for 3 Enticing Matchups That Are Must-Wins

Week 11 is here, and the movers and shakers are getting ready for what they hope will be a playoff run.  January football is not for everyone, though, and a few teams are up against it already in must-win games as the season winds down.

These types of games give us the best football to watch when teams feel backed against the wall and know they haven't been playing their best football.  Let's just hope these teams realize the predicament they are actually in and bring it for us on Sunday.

San Diego Chargers @ Chicago Bears

The San Diego Chargers are known to be slow-starters and often put together a great late-season run to sneak in the playoffs.  This year, it happened in reverse: they started 4-1 and have lost their last four games.  Now they find themselves in a three-way tie for second place in the AFC West, a game behind Oakland.

They play a Chicago Bears team that is as hot as the Chargers are cold.  The Bears have won four straight and not against just anybody.  They beat the Eagles and Buccaneers on the road and won a couple of decisive games over divisional opponents.  As hungry as the Bears have been in their hunt for a wild card, the Chargers have looked equally as flat.

A lot of it has been the turnovers.

In the four losses, the Chargers have turned the ball 11 times.  Phillip Rivers struggles have been the basis for most of the turnovers. He has thrown 15 interceptions this season with a QB Rating of just 80—his lowest since he took over as a starter.  To get out of the current funk San Diego is in, it will have to start with Rivers taking care of the ball. 

They face a Bears team that picked off the Lions' Matthew Stafford four times after he had thrown just four interceptions all season.  The Bears returned two of those picks for touchdowns and will be flying around with a lot of confidence this week.  The Chargers at their best can play with anyone, so they are certainly not overmatched by the Bears.  They will however find themselves down a lot if they start throwing the ball to the wrong guys again.

Prediction: Chicago Bears over San Diego Chargers, 27-23

Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers

The Lions have dropped three of their last four games and now find themselves tied with the Bears, who just handed them their worst loss of the season.  It is paramount that they end their slide and get a big win, or they will find themselves falling into obscurity and out of the wild card race as fast as they jumped into it.

The three losses they have piled up recently were to good teams: the Falcons, Bears and 49ers.  They did easily handle an inferior Broncos team and will need to bring that same confidence into this game with the Panthers.  It may be easy to overlook Carolina, who is just 2-7 on the year, especially with the 9-0 Packers looming on a Thanksgiving Day bout.

The Lions are obviously missing Jahvid Best, who is still out with concussion-like symptoms.  The running game has been a huge cause for concern ever since he left.  They are missing the balance in their offense and asking Matthew Stafford to throw way too much (63 attempts last week), and it bit them against Chicago.

The Panthers are coming over their worst loss of the season, but have played very closely against a slew of good teams.  Detroit will need to keep its head in this game and find a running game to get what should be a fairly easy win and stay alive.

Prediction: Detroit Lions over Carolina Panthers, 30-21

Tennessee Titans @ Atlanta Falcons

This game will fly under the radar in the media, but it's a very important game to both teams.  The Titans and Falcons have both been hot and cold all season, but find themselves in striking distance in their divisions.  They both trail in their divisions by two wins with 5-4 records.

The Falcons need this win much more, though, being at home and in a division behind the Saints, who they just lost to at home. 

The Titans are just as far behind Houston, but were just given a gift of some sorts.  Texans quarterback Matt Schaub has been ruled out for the rest of the season with injury, and even if backup Matt Leinart can match Schaub's production, it will take time.  That will buy time for the Titans to make their move.

Both teams rely on their running game and let Matt Ryan and Matt Hasselbeck manage the game from the quarterback positions.  It has gone a lot smoother on the ground for Michael Turner and Atlanta so far.  Chris Johnson did have a big effort last week on the Titans' way to a season high 172 rush yards.  It will be interesting to see if they can keep that going against a Falcons rush defense that only allows 90 yards per game. 

It will be a critical game in terms of playoff positioning for both teams, and we will see that on the field.  I like the Falcons, who have been a little more consistent and are usually very good at defending their own field.

Predictions: Atlanta Falcons over Tennessee Titans, 23-17