NFL Week 11 Picks: Can Anyone Figure out the Baltimore Ravens?

Quantum mechanics. Stonehenge. Women. The Baltimore Ravens.

What I have listed are four of the most difficult things on the planet to understand. The Ravens have some huge wins this year, including a season sweep of the Pittsburgh Steelers and dominant performances at home in wins over the New York Jets and Houston Texans.

But every time it looks like Baltimore is ready to establish itself as the team to beat in the AFC, the Ravens stumble over a team they should beat handily.

Their first win over the Steelers was followed up by an ugly loss at the Tennessee Titans. After blowing out the Texans, Baltimore took a hideous loss at Jacksonville. And the second win over Pittsburgh led to a loss to the lowly Seattle Seahawks.

The Ravens have another chance to grab control of the AFC North on Sunday when the upstart Cincinnati Bengals come to Baltimore.

Both teams are 6-3, a half-game behind the idle Steelers in the division. Cincinnati had its five-game winning streak snapped last week with a hard-fought home loss to Pittsburgh.

Not only did the Bengals take a loss last week, but also lost wide receiver A.J. Green—who leads the team with 41 catches and six touchdowns—to a knee injury. Green has a bone bruise suffered while making an awkward touchdown catch against the Steelers and declared himself a game-time decision on Sunday. He is listed as questionable.

Rookie quarterback Andy Dalton looked like a rookie for one of the few times this season in the late going against Pittsburgh, throwing a pair of fourth-quarter picks that helped seal Cincinnati’s fate.

But while Carolina’s Cam Newton gets most of the attention, Dalton’s been the rookie quarterback who has been winning consistently and performing that way, too. For the season, Dalton is completing 60.3 percent of his passes and has 14 touchdowns and only nine interceptions.

The Ravens may want to try to establish the run after having Joe Flacco throw 52 times in the loss at Seattle. Some of that was a product of falling behind early and having to play catch-up, but Baltimore would be well-served to focus the offense around Ray Rice.

In his last four games against the Bengals, Flacco has posted an ugly 48.2 passer rating with nine picks and only two touchdown passes and has been sacked 11 times. The Ravens have lost three of those four games.

Cincinnati does have other injury concerns. Cornerback Leon Hall, their best defender, is out for the year with an Achilles injury.

While the Texans, Colts, Saints and Steelers enjoy the last bye week on the schedule, here at the picks for Week 11, with home teams in caps:

BRONCOS (+7) over Jets: Tim Tebow against a Rex Ryan defense. The good news is that with all those running plays, this is likely to be one of those rare primetime games that doesn’t keep us up too far past our bedtime.

PACKERS (-14) over Buccaneers: Aaron Rodgers is having a historic season. Josh Freeman is having jersey color recognition issues. That’s a bad problem to have against Charles Woodson and his friends.

VIKINGS (+1) over Raiders: Minnesota has injury problems in the secondary, but its run defense is sound.

LIONS (-7) over Panthers: Detroit has a brutal closing schedule, including two games with the undefeated Packers. If the Lions are serious about contending for a playoff berth, this is one they have to have.

REDSKINS (+8) over Cowboys: I like Dallas. I hate this line. Big lines in rivalry games are scary.

BROWNS (-1) over Jaguars: Cleveland by a field goal. I mean, they win 3-0. This will be one of those rare games featuring ffense. As in, no “O.”

Bengals (+7) over RAVENS: The Bengals, even without Hall, will stay in the game against a Baltimore offense that is just wildly inconsistent.

Bills (+1) over DOLPHINS: Miami has had a nice two-game win streak. Let’s not get carried away.

49ERS (-10) over Cardinals: Unlike his brother John, Jim Harbaugh’s team doesn’t seem to lose focus against lesser opponents.

RAMS (-1) over Seahawks: St. Louis winning two in a row? Stephen Jackson will give Seattle fits.

BEARS (-4) over Chargers: Enjoy the final weeks of Norv Turner’s career as an NFL head coach.

FALCONS (-7) over Titans: Tennessee went on the road to blow out an NFC South opponent last Sunday. The Falcons, however, are not the Panthers.

Eagles (+5) over GIANTS: The season is probably already lost for Philadelphia, but if there’s going to be a last stand, this has to be it.

PATRIOTS (-15) over Chiefs: Tyler Palko hasn’t started a game since he was a senior at Pitt. This is not the place or the opponent to make one’s first NFL start.

Last week: 8-7
Season: 79-59-7