North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech: Latest Spread Info, BCS Impact and Predictions

With the ACC Coastal division still up for grabs, the Virginia Tech Hokies are in a must-win scenario this week when they host the North Carolina Tar Heels.

North Carolina is bowl eligible right now with six wins, but a victory over a top-10 team would be a major boon to which postseason game this team plays in. The Tar Heels have had their struggles against ranked teams this season, with a record of 0-2 against Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Virginia Tech is playing as well as anyone in the country right now. The Hokies have bounced back nicely after a mid-season loss to Clemson with five straight victories and are two wins away from playing in the ACC Championship Game for the fifth time in seven seasons.

Where: Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Virginia

When: Thursday, Nov. 17 at 8:00 p.m. EDT

Watch: ESPN

Spread: Virginia Tech (-10.5)

Virginia Tech has more talent and deserves to be favored in this game, but they have had problems against inferior teams this season. They defeated Duke by just four points two weeks ago, they squeaked out a three-point win against Miami in early October and defeated East Carolina by a touchdown.

The Hokies do not have a good offense, so they are always the mercy of their defense and special teams. The good news is that both those units are so good that they have been able to win nine games. They should be favored, but giving them 10.5 points is too much.

Over/Under: 47

That number falls right in line with what Virginia Tech’s average scores have been all season long. They score around 30 points per game and allow 16.5, so it is clear where the oddsmakers are expecting this game to go.

I do think that number sells North Carolina’s offense a little short. They have not been great, by any means, but have had moments where they look like they could be an above-average unit. Granted, they have not gone up against a team with a defense as good as Virginia Tech’s, so it will be interesting to see how well they respond to adversity.

North Carolina Injury Report

Questionable: LB Norkeithus Otis (Thigh), T T.J. Leifheit (Ankle), QB Bryn Renner (Concussion), TE Sean Fitzpatrick (Concussion), WR Reggie Wilkins (Ankle)

Out: S Matt Merletti (Knee), PK Casey Barth (Groin), FB Devon Ramsay (Knee)

Virginia Tech Injury Report

Questionable: LB Alonzo Tweedy (Ankle), G David Wang (Foot)

Out:  LB Bruce Taylor (Foot), LB Jean Gouveia-Winslow (Foot), DT Antoine Hopkins (Knee), WR Dyrell Roberts (Arm), DT Kwamaine Battle (Knee)

BCS/Top-25 Poll Implications

Virginia Tech is ranked eighth in the BCS right now, just one spot behind conference rival Clemson, and they will have to win out if they want to make it to the ACC championship game to get their rematch with the Tigers.

The Hokies have an interstate battle next week with Virginia that will determine the winner of the ACC Coastal division, but first things first and they can’t look past a solid North Carolina team. Their Orange Bowl dreams depend on it.

Keys To North Carolina Win

The Tar Heels have to strike early and often against Virginia Tech’s stout defense. They will have to put the Hokies back on their heels and make their offense play catch up. Quarterback Bryn Renner, assuming he is cleared to play, has to have his best game of the season.

Defensively, they don’t have to be great because Virginia Tech does not have a powerful offense. They do have to make a few plays and rattle Logan Thomas’ cage. Thomas has had his share of struggles following a brilliant performance against Miami, so if he is asked to do more than he is used to, the Tar Heels can make him uncomfortable in the pocket.

Keys To Virginia Tech Win

Everything starts with the defense. They have to be able to set the tone early and not let North Carolina’s offense find a rhythm. They have had occasional problems stopping the run, and Giovani Bernard has been very good for North Carolina this season.

But considering the inconsistent play of the Tar Heels offense and the uncertainty surrounding Renner, the Hokies can gear up to stop the run and force them to pass.

Running back David Wilson has carried this offense virtually all season long and he will be asked to do it again. The Hokies like to play more ball control than opening things up and taking a chance down the field, so expect a healthy dose of Wilson.

Prediction

North Carolina has the offense to keep the game close, but Virginia Tech will pull away late.

Hokies 30, Tar Heels 20