Vikings vs. Packers: Why Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen Keep Packers from Covering

The Green Bay Packers are great, but don’t confuse them with a team that can routinely beat divisional opponents by massive amounts of points.

It’s no secret that the Packers are currently on a run that hasn’t been seen by the NFL in quite some time. Dating back to last season, the Pack have won 14 straight games. QB Aaron Rodgers is a lock to win the MVP right now and the defense is relying on turnovers to get by.

That’s why the Packers are favored by so many points.

Having said all those glowing remarks, I think this is a perfect situation to take the Minnesota Vikings +13 on Monday Night Football.

The first thing to remember is that the Vikings' 33-27 loss at the Metrodome earlier in the season was the closest the Packers have come to a loss this season.

The Packers 31^st ranked pass defense is the elephant in the room for Green Bay and even a rookie QB can exploit it.

In their first meeting, Ponder had 219 yards and two touchdowns in his first-ever start. After an impressive win against the Panthers and a bye week, the Vikings offense is fully centered around Ponder at this point.

Also, factor in that RB Adrian Peterson owns the Packers. He has three consecutive 100-yard games at Lambeau Field and had 175 yards on over seven yards a carry in their first meeting. He can control the clock and keep the ball out of Rodgers' hands.

The Vikings' sixth-ranked run defense will eat up James Starks and Ryan Grant, forcing the Pack into a lot of 3rd-and-long situations.

Then there’s DE Jared Allen. Allen has registered a sack in a franchise-record 10 straight games. He has 11.5 sacks in his last six games against the Packers.

I’ll leave you with this final fun fact: The underdog is 18-7 ATS in their last 25 meetings.

Then there’s this:

Key Trends

• Vikings are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Green Bay.
• Road team is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 meetings.
• Underdog is 18-7 ATS in their last 25 meetings.
• Vikings are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.

Prediction: Packers 28, Vikings 17

(Spread courtesy of Covers.com.)