South Florida vs. Syracuse: Latest Spread Info, BCS Impact and Predictions

Even with the Big East conference lacking a truly dominant team, Friday night’s showdown between the South Florida Bulls and Syracuse Orangemen will only determine which team will finish in the cellar.

After a 4-0 start to the season that included a victory at Notre Dame, the Bulls have lost four straight games in conference play and are the only team in the Big East without a conference victory.

They have lost in every way imaginable—close games, overtime and blowouts. That said, they can become bowl-eligible with two more wins.

The Orange have had an inconsistent season from the start. They defeated West Virginia, a team that was supposed to be the best in the Big East, three weeks ago, but back-to-back losses to Louisville and Connecticut have them fighting for their bowl-game life.

Where:  Carrier Dome in Syracuse, New York

When: Friday, Nov. 11 at 8:00 p.m. EST

Watch: ESPN2; ESPN3.com

Spread: South Florida (-3.5)

This spread does not make any sense at all. I know that South Florida has played its last three opponents extremely close, losing by a combined total of 12 points, but they are coming into the game with four straight losses and will be playing on the road.

The Orange, meanwhile, are 4-1 at home in 2011. They have won those four games by an average of 11 points, though that number is skewed because of their 49-23 drubbing of West Virginia three weeks ago.

Either way, there is no reason for South Florida to be favored in this game. That is not to say that this team can’t win, but they have done nothing to warrant a 3.5-point spread.

Over/Under: 51.5

Considering the struggles that both teams have had in recent weeks, that number seems a little high.

South Florida’s offense has been one of the better units in the country this season. They are in the top 40 in passing yards per game (266.9), rushing yards (199.8) and points scored (32.5).

Syracuse’s offense has not been effective this season.

There have been moments when they have shined, but overall they are one of the worst in the country. Considering that this game is at the Carrier Dome, perhaps they will come out with a little extra motivation.

South Florida Injury Report

Out: CB Richard Dixon (Knee), DB Ernie Tabuteau (Back), OL Tony Kibler (Suspended), DT Todd Chandler (Academics) and WR Sterling Griffin (Ankle).

Questionable: DT Demi Thompson (Back), WR Terrence Mitchell (Concussion), WR Stephen Bravo-Brown (Ankle), FB Chris Breit (Shoulder), TE Isaac Virgin (Shoulder) and FB Armando Sanchez (Ankle).

Probable: TE Reshard Cliett (Ankle).

Syracuse Injury Report

Out: WR Marcus Sales (Suspension), RB Prince Tyson-Gulley (Collarbone), T Sean Hickey (Knee) and QB Jonny Miller (Suspension).

Questionable: WR Kyle Foste (Lower Body).

BCS/Top-25 Poll Implications

Syracuse still has an outside shot at a Big East championship. There are a lot of things that would have to go right in order for that to happen, considering that this team only has one conference win, but if they win out and a few other teams go on losing streaks, they will make it to their first BCS game.

South Florida needs a win just for morale, because four-game losing streaks in conference play tend to take a toll on your mental toughness.

Keys To a South Florida Win

When the Bulls were winning games, the offense was putting up over 45 points per game. They need to find that kind of production again, because if they aren’t scoring they aren’t going to win.

The defense is good enough to hold down an opponent long enough until the offense scores, but they can’t hold it for four quarters. Plus, to ask anyone to pitch a shutout is unfair.

Junior quarterback B.J. Daniels has had three games with over 300 yards passing, and the team is 2-1 in those games. He needs to establish a rhythm early to get his confidence up and ease the burden on the running game.

If he gets going, the rest will take care of itself.

Keys To a Syracuse Win

The Orange have had three games this season in which they have scored over 30 points. They are 3-0 in those games. When they fall under that threshold, though, their record is just 2-4.

That tells me two things.

First, the defense is not good enough to make plays on a consistent basis to bail the offense out on days they struggle. Secondly, the offense is only strong when it goes up against a defense that is really bad or that they know really well.

The offense has to get big plays early to get the crowd into it, and the defense has to put pressure on B.J. Daniels to force him into making mistakes.

Prediction

South Florida’s conference struggles will continue, and they will fall to 0-5 against a Syracuse team that is hungry and wants to become eligible for a bowl game.

Syracuse 24, South Florida 17