NFL Picks Week 9: Locks You Can Bet the Farm on

If the Redskins score a single point against the 49ers they should consider it a moral victory. The reality is that they are going to need a lot more points than they are equipped to score to keep that one within the spread.

That betting line is easy money. It's not the only one either.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Redskins

Play: 49ers -4

When the Redskins have been successful this season, it has been by establishing their run game.

But no team has been able to establish their run game against the 49ers this season.

The 49ers are first in the NFL, allowing just 73.4 yards rushing per game. They are fourth in the NFL allowing just 3.5 yards per carry.

This means that the Redskins will need John Beck to lead the Redskins' passing offense through the air. That's not going to happen.

Beck was 20/33 with two interceptions as the Redskins were shutout against the Bills last week.

On the other side of the ball, the 49ers will have a hard time moving the ball on a solid Redskins' defense, but they won't have to. They won't need many points in this one and they will be working on a short field all game.

Prediction: 49ers 20, Redskins 3

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs

Play: Chiefs -4

The Dolphins shouldn't only be a four-point underdog to any team on the road—and certainly not in this one.

The Dolphins have looked better in losing the last two weeks, but they've done so with the run game, and they're not going to be able to do that against the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are a very modest are 22nd in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game. However, their run D is performing much better than that number suggests.

Football Outsiders has the Chiefs ranked 13th in their weighted rush defense analysis. They're also eighth in the league at stopping opponents from rushing for a first down with two or less yards to go on third and fourth down.

And all of these numbers are skewed by the Chiefs' blowout losses in their first two games.

The Dolphins will have to take to the air in this game, which is not a good place for the Dolphins to be.

Prediction: Chiefs 23, Dolphins 13

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts

Play: Falcons -7

The Colts have proven they can lose spectacularly to anyone, anywhere. And that's what they are going to do on their home turf as they are invaded by the Falcons.

Atlanta needs to get their ground game going to be successful. And they won't meet much resistance in the ground game against the Colts.

The Colts are 31st in the NFL allowing 144 rushing yards per game.

They're allowing opponents to rush for 4.2 yards per carry. That isn't a horrible number until you consider the Colts have faced more rushing attempts per game this season than any other team.

The Colts are unable to stop the run even when they know opponents are going to run it.

The Colts have spent almost the entire season trailing. That means teams are content to run as much as possible and grind the game out.

The Falcons will use the run to help build a lead and then shut the door with a huge dose of Michael Turner.

Prediction: Falcons 27, Colts 13