2011 Breeders' Cup: Uncle Mo Will Struggle to Uphold Role as Favorite

Uncle Mo may be the 5-2 favorite to win the 2011 Breeders Cup, but the smart money is to stay away from him.

There really is no favorite in this race.

The field boasts a 4-year old filly with a predisposition for winning in Havre de Grace, Belmont Stakes winner Drosselmeyer and Travers winner Stay Thirsty, among others.

Simply put, there is no way Uncle Mo can be the favorite once the race gets going.

There are far too many talented and inspired horses in this race, so even though Uncle Mo is the morning line favorite, I wouldn't count on him to hold on to that title.

Of course, the other owners and trainers will agree with my statement, but here is a very interesting take from Havre de Grace trainer Larry Jones, as reported by New York Daily News writer Jerry Bossert:

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Jones believes the Classic’s mile-and-a-quarter distance will be Uncle Mo’s Achilles heel.

“He’s a brilliant horse,” Jones said. “I think he’s a special horse, but he’s going to have to show how special he is if he can come in and win this mile-and-a-quarter race off the prep that’s he’s had.”

Uncle Mo, who has never gone this far, is entering the Classic off of a seven-furlong race and a one-mile race since returning to training on July 11. The rest of the field is coming into Saturday’s race with plenty of two-turn route experience.

“I think we’ve gotten as much foundation as we could get,” Todd Pletcher said, including a six-furlong work on Oct. 23 at Belmont.

“It would be surprising to me if at the eighth pole, Uncle Mo was still way out in front, not shortening stride,” Jones said. “If we don’t have him run down at the eighth pole, we all could be in trouble.”

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A horse cannot have a weakness and win this race, especially with a field as talented as this one.

Uncle Mo may be odds favorite, but when all is said and done I wouldn't expect him to come away with first place in the classic.

Race Times:

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint: 3:21 p.m. EST
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile: 4:01 p.m. EST
Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Turf: 4:45 p.m. EST
Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile: 5:25 p.m. EST
TVG Breeders’ Cup Mile: 6:07 p.m. EST
Breeders’ Cup Classic: 7 p.m EST