2011 Breeders' Cup Predictions: Extended Absence Will Cost Uncle Mo in Classic

As the morning-line favorite for the Breeders' Cup Classic at 5-2, much is expected of Uncle Mo. The three-year-old was the initial favorite in the Kentucky Derby, but he was scratched from the race with a liver ailment.

Uncle Mo has since recovered from the potentially life-threatening illness and has a shot at redemption at Churchill Downs. The sickness caused Uncle Mo to miss four months, and it was questionable as to whether he would ever race again.

He has had some success since his return, however, including a second-place finish in the King's Bishop Stakes and a victory in the Kelso Handicap. While it's encouraging to see Uncle Mo bounce back so nicely, he hasn't been tested yet at distance.

The Classic will be a 1.25-mile race, which is a distance Uncle Mo has never run. The longest race he has ever competed in, in fact, was 1.125 miles. When you combine his inexperience at that particular length with the long layoff he had to endure, it's a bit curious that Uncle Mo is favored at all.

Uncle Mo would seem to have an advantageous post position at No. 12, and trainer Todd Pletcher seems to be happy with it, but I doubt a great post position will make up for all of the factors that are currently going against the favorite.

Not only will Uncle Mo have to contend with filly Havre de Grace, who is a 3-1 shot, but the field as a whole is quite deep, and essentially any horse can come out on top. So You Think, Game On Dude and Stay Thirsty are all top options as well, meaning Uncle Mo would truly have to earn a victory.

A win would be an incredible comeback story for Uncle Mo, who will be mounted by jockey John Velazquez, but it simply doesn't appear to be in the cards. There is no telling how good Uncle Mo could have been had he not had an important portion of his prime taken away from him, but I think it will end up costing him in the end.