UFC 138: What Papy Abedi Must Do to Beat Thiago Alves

Papy Abedi will be making his much anticipated UFC debut at UFC 138. Abedi brings a black belt in judo and some thunderous power to the Octagon.

In eight professional bouts, only one person has had the unfortunate pleasure of lasting until the final bell. His last bout ended as a result of a knockdown that transitioned into a guillotine choke.

For most fighters, their first bout in the UFC is against someone who's either relatively new themselves, or a veteran well past their prime. Abedi instead has a welcoming party that's hosted by top 10 welterweight Thiago Alves.

Besides making his UFC debut, Abedi will also be making his welterweight debut as well. He didn't look drained at the weigh ins and it seems the cut hasn't bothered him at all.

His opponent Alves has some of the best striking in the 170lb division. "The Pitbull" has bone breaking leg kicks to go along with lightning fast knees and hands.

Alves is likely to use a lot of leg kicks to attempt to control the distance and keep Abedi at bay. Alves will have openings for his power hand as Abedi is a southpaw and has shown to lead with hooks at times.

Abedi is no doubt confident about his own stand up abilities but he should look to avoid any extended striking contests.

He has to close the distance and use his clinch game against Alves. At UFC 130, we saw Rick Story able to implement a strategy that forced Thiago into corners. Once Alves was near the cage, Story was able to take down Alves or hit him with a few shots.

Alves' kryptonite has always been wrestlers. Georges St-Pierre and Jon Fitch were able to take Alves down at will in their bouts. Granted those are the top two welterweights in the world so I don't expect Abedi to have the same success.

Even if Abedi can clinch with Thiago, it won't be easy getting the Brazilian to the ground. Abedi will more than likely eat a few knees in his attempts to take Thiago down so he has to be prepared to take a few shots to get the take down.

It will be interesting to see how much Alves is affected by his weight cut, which is something that's always a concern when he fights.

If Alves doesn't have his usual speed, expect to see Abedi work his way inside and use his judo background to take Alves to the mat. Holding Thiago down not only prevents him from using his best offensive weapons, it is the area Abedi has the greatest chance of winning.