2011 Breeders Cup: Why Havre de Grace Will Dominate Race

Havre de Grace will sit back early and destroy the field away on the home stretch of the 2011 Breeders' Cup.

Here is the case for Have de Grace:

Havre de Grace's Resume

This filly is one of the leading candidates for the title of 2011 Horse of the Year. She has had a stellar year and is just one photo finish defeat to Blind Luck from a perfect record. Blind Luck is not in this field.

She's won three Grade 1 races in 2011, along with two Grade 3s.

She has had no problem running with, and beating the boys. Here is her recent victory at Grade 1 Woodward Handicap at Saratoga.

Biggest Breeders' Cup Asset

Havre de Grace is not explosive out of the gate. But in the Breeders' Cup you don't need to be. Grace has a high-end cruising speed, and that is what will lead her to victory.

She can sit back on the start than work up to cruising speed, while jockey Ramon Dominguez guides her through a lane and then lets that finishing kick take over.

This is a competitive horse with the endurance to take it on the stretch.

Red Flag

The one red flag here is that Grace's worst race in the last two years came at Churchill Downs. However, in that race she was in the 11 post, and was trapped going wide on the first turns.

That race was shorter than the mile-and-a-quarter Breeders' Cup. This will allow Grace time to position herself for a better entry into the turn.

Post Positions

Post	Horse	Jockey	Morning Odds
1	Prayer for Relief	Rafael Bejarano	30:1
2	Flat Out	Alex Solis	6:1
3	Drosselmeyer	Mike Smith	15:1
4	Ruler on Ice	Garrett Gomez	30:1
5	So You Think	Ryan Moore	5:1
6	Ice Box	Corey Nakatani	30:1
7	Rattlesnake Bridge	Calvin Borel	30:1
8	Game On Dude	Chantal Sutherland	10:1
9	Stay Thirsty	Javier Castellano	12:1
10	Harve de Grace	Ramon Dominguez	3:1
11	Headache	Paco Lopez	30:1
12	Uncle Mo	John Velazquez	5:2
13	To Honor and Serve	Jose Lezcano	12:1

Prediction

Havre de Grace by two lengths over Flat Out.