Alabama Football: Which 2012 NFL Draft 1st Round Talent Is Most Likely to Bust?

In terms of NFL talent, there may not be a team in the country as stacked as Alabama.

Trent Richardson is without a doubt the top running back in this year’s draft class and the defense is brimming with talent at every position.

Todd McShay from Scouts Inc. has four players from the Tide in the first round—Richardson, Dre Kirkpatrick, Courtney Upshaw and Mark Barron—and players like Robert Lester, Dont’a Hightower and Josh Chapman could all sneak in as well if they impress in the combine.

But for now, let’s focus on the four players who are solidly in the first round. Which one of them is the most overrated?

It has to be between Kirkpatrick and Barron because Richardson is one of the most incredible athletes I’ve ever seen and Upshaw leads Alabama in sacks and tackles for loss as a linebacker.

Kirkpatrick is one of the biggest cornerbacks in the draft at 6’ 2.5”, 190 pounds, so he is the ideal person to cover large possession receivers. That said, he has been hampered by injuries his entire career and only has three interceptions during his time with the Tide.

Also, he has had two surgeries on his left shoulder though it has never caused him to miss any serious playing time.

Barron is a hard hitting safety who also has a knack for the ball, scoring 11 interceptions during his career. His tackle numbers have dropped this year but that is largely because Alabama is leaving their deep secondary in pass coverage on almost every play.

Overall, Kirkpatrick has the biggest chance for a letdown or not be worth the mid- to high-round grade he is getting. This is not to say he isn’t talented but I agree with Mel Kiper who has him at 22nd overall compared to Todd McShay who has him 14th overall.

LSU’s Morris Claiborne is sensational and there are more productive cornerbacks in this draft like Janoris Jenkins, Chase Minnifield and Jayron Hosley.

For a team whose priority is stopping the run, Kirkpatrick is a must-get and a team with great safety play could also use him because he plays best when close to the line of scrimmage.

While it only takes one team to like a player, Kirkpatrick strikes me as more of a late first-round, possibly early second-round choice.