NFL Week 8 Picks: Where Should Your Hard-Earned Money Go?

We are entering the midway point of the 2011 season, and we've been able to identify our contenders and pretenders, the surprises and the utter disappointments. 

We have been able to enjoy the surprises of the 5-2 Detroit Lions, 5-1 San Francisco 49ers and 4-2 Buffalo Bills. On the other hand, we've been almost shocked to see just how bad teams like the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos are.

With all that said, the NFL presents you Week 8—a slate of games that don't exactly feature many ideal matchups.

It's a perfect combination of subpar teams taking each other on, while many contenders have the week off. In fact, all six teams with their bye are over .500: the Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, New York Jets, Oakland Raiders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

For those who like to play the odds and are still in survival pools, Week 8 might be a great week for you.  Let's take a look at where your money should be going.

1. New England (-3) at Pittsburgh

This is a toss-up game, and if you were going to put money on it, you're better served betting on the over/under point total of 50.5 points. Both of these teams have holes in their defense, particularly New England, which has possibly the worst defense in football.

But Tom Brady and his prolific offense will make up for the fact that Mike Wallace may go for nearly 200 yards receiving. This game has shoot-out written all over it, but I believe New England will win narrowly. 

But ultimately, I'd have very little confidence betting the Pats to win this game by more than three.

Pick: New England 34, Pittsburgh 30

2. Jacksonville at Houston (-9.5)

This should be an easy game to predict, but between the Texans' knack to play down to their level of competition and the Jaguars' to act like a gnat you can't kill, I'm not that sure Houston will cover the spread.

I don't see the Jaguars shutting down two offenses in a row, especially since this game is in Houston.

But will Houston beat this team by 10 points? That's very debatable.  

If Andre Johnson is out injured, I actually see this being a low-scoring game, so I'm not even confident about the 41-point over/under. 

The Jags are decent shutting down the run, so the biggest strength of the Houston offense could be neutralized. 

In the end, I see Jacksonville annoying everyone by hanging around, but the Texans emerge victorious.

Pick: Houston 20, Jacksonville 12

3. Minnesota at Carolina (-3.5)

You know, despite the fact that these two teams are only one game apart in the standings, you get a totally different vibe with these two. The Panthers are 2-5, but are one of the most exciting teams in the league thanks to rookie standout Cam Newton.

The Vikings, on the other hand, are 1-6, have benched Donovan McNabb, cut former big-time free agent Bernard Berrian and are wasting another great season from Adrian Peterson. 

Confidence of these two teams are moving in different directions, but you still can't put a ton of faith into a team that's still just 4-19 in its last 23 games. 

I believe Carolina will win here, and in another week, I'd probably have them right around the middle of these rankings. But for this week, I go for a Carolina victory—you can put your money elsewhere with more certainty, though.

Pick: Carolina 27, Minnesota 20

4. Dallas at Philadelphia (-3.5)

The Eagles have put themselves in a position where every week is a playoff game. Lose and they're 2-5, two games behind Dallas and likely three behind the Giants, who play the lowly Dolphins.

Between their urgency and the fact that you just cannot trust Tony Romo, I believe the Eagles will win this game. I'm not that sure about the 3.5 points though, nor the over/under of 50.5 points.

One thing I would bet on is DeMarco Murray running for more than 150 yards through the porous Eagles defense. But I see Romo throwing at least two crucial interceptions in this game, and it will cost Dallas the game. 

Vick and the men in green win. 

Pick: Philadelphia 24, Dallas 17

5. Washington "at" Buffalo (-6)

This is the first time the Bills are going to be missing the home crowd at Ralph Wilson stadium since they've agreed to do one game per year in Toronto. 

The crowd in Buffalo has gone bonkers over their three wins there and, sadly, while they'll draw fans in Toronto, the atmosphere will be nothing like the Bills have experienced in their wins over the Raiders, Patriots and Eagles.

Still, despite the neutral site, I believe the Bills will win and cover the points.

I don't know of a team that's fallen further in two weeks than the Redskins.

Two weeks ago they were 3-1, coming off a bye and preparing to put the final nail in the coffin for the rival Eagles.

Flash forward to today, and they're 3-3, have replaced their quarterback and they've lost running back Tim Hightower for the year. Wide receiver Santana Moss and tight end Chris Cooley are both also out with long-term injuries.

The Redskins are in a free-fall that should help Buffalo go to 5-2 and help them continue their journey to their first trip to the playoffs in 12 years. 

6. San Diego (-3.5) at Kansas City

After two weeks into the NFL season, what would you have said to me if I told you the Chiefs would be playing for first place in the AFC West six weeks later? 

The Chiefs were outscored 89-10 in their first two losses and lost their next game to San Diego 20-17 in Week 3. However, the Chiefs have scratched and clawed their way back to a 3-3 record and now play a reeling 4-2 Chargers team at home.

It lines up perfectly for them to pull off an upset, right? 

Wrong.

The Chargers may not be playing great ball, but they're still better than Kansas City, and I expect them to play an angry game after having an embarrassingly horrid second half last week at New York, losing to the Jets. I think Rivers has his best game of the year, and the Chargers will win. 

Pick: San Diego 28, Kansas City 20

7. Cincinnati (-3) at Seattle

One of the bigger surprises of the NFL season has been the Bengals. Predicted by many to win four or less games, Cincinnati—led by rookie quarterback Andy Dalton—is 4-2 and in the thick of the AFC North lead.

This week they travel west to Seattle. Until recently, the Seahawks enjoyed one of the more formidable home-field advantages in the league, but they've lost eight times at home since 2009. 

The Bengals are notoriously known for losing games like this, but I don't see it happening here. They have one of the best defenses in the league, and Seattle is mess this season. This could very well be a sloppy, low-scoring affair—perhaps similar to the 6-3 loss Seattle sustained last week at Cleveland. 

Still, I expect Cincy to leave Seattle with a 5-2 record and tied for first in the AFC North.

Pick: Cincinnati 17, Seattle 9

8. Arizona at Baltimore (-13)

This is a game where I'm very confident about the actual result, but have no confidence in the spread. 

Baltimore is going to come out quite angry after embarrassing themselves on national television, losing to the Jaguars 12-7 on Monday night.

Despite this horrid performance, they remain a 13-point favorite heading into their game with the Cardinals (this number could go down by Sunday).

Yes, the Cards are 1-5 and have played some ugly football this year. But this is also a team that has almost defeated stiff competition like the New York Giants.  

I'm very confident the Ravens will win this game, but 13 points is a lot of points to give when you can't even muster a first down for almost three quarters against a Jaguars team that gave up 32 points to the Jets earlier this season.

Pick: Baltimore 28, Arizona 17

9. Cleveland at San Francisco (-8.5)

Who would have thought that eight weeks into the season, this game would feature both teams at .500 or better?

Now the fact is the Browns didn't exactly impress a lot of people when they beat Seattle 6-3, but as they say, a win is a win.

But now Cleveland is going to San Francisco to play a 5-1 49ers team that continues to impress and prove doubters wrong every week. Their latest triumph was beating the previously-unbeaten Detroit Lions. 

The 49ers play in an abysmal NFC West, and it looks clear they will win the division.

The question is, can they actually get a bye?

I see the 49ers continuing their roll and covering the 8.5 points; however, I don't think the two teams will cover the over/under of 38.5 points. I actually see this one getting a little out of hand with the 49ers winning by more than two touchdowns.

Pick: San Francisco 27, Cleveland 10

10. Detroit (-2.5) at Denver

So Tim Tebow has four good minutes of football and his 2-4 Broncos beat arguably the worst team in the league in Miami. 

And this result warrants Denver to be just a 2.5-point underdog to a 5-2 team that has lost two close games to two NFC contenders? I just don't get it.

I will grant you that Denver seems to play hard for Tebow, even though he has not proven himself to play consistently for five minutes, much less a full 60. But it doesn't mean his team should be less than a field goal underdog.

Yes, the Lions had a terrible history of playing on the road, but they've beaten Tampa Bay and Minnesota on the road this year. I expect that streak to continue with Detroit winning by more than a touchdown—with or without Matt Stafford. 

11. Indianapolis at Tennessee (-9)

The Titans were humbled last week, losing at home to the Texans 41-7. For a contest that was supposed to determine who would lead the AFC South, it was not much of a challenge for Houston.

With that said, the Titans are getting a nice elixir, taking on a Colts squad that lost 62-7 to the New Orleans Saints. Indy is 0-7 and has no real hope of fixing themselves since Peyton Manning is almost certainly lost for the year.

Tennessee needs to win this game to keep pace with the Texans, and I certainly believe that will happen.  I'm frankly surprised they're not favored by more in this game. Definitely bet the nine-point spread, but perhaps you should steer clear of the 43.5 over/under total.

Pick: Tennessee 24, Indianapolis 7

12. New Orleans (-13) at St. Louis

You know it's bad when you're at home and still a 13-point underdog. 

This is what happens though when you're 0-7 and coming off a blowout loss. 

The St. Louis Rams had a lot of promise heading into this season, but everything has gone wrong. Their goal at this point is to avoid having to make a difficult decision  drafting Andrew Luck or trading Sam Bradford. 

This is a game that I expect to get ugly early. The 13 points, while massive for an away team, probably isn't enough. I think this a game where the Saints will win by more than three touchdowns.

Pick: New Orleans 38, St. Louis 14

13. Miami at New York Giants (-10)

Though the Giants are not favored by as many points as you see in the Saints game, this is the game I have the absolute most confidence in. 

The Miami Dolphins are a dead team walking after their disastrous loss last week.

The Giants are not a dominant team, but playing at home against an 0-7 team that is pointing fingers at each other—I believe this is a game that could get very very ugly.

One shouldn't be shocked at the Dolphins' struggles. They essentially fired their coach Tony Sparano by looking for his replacement, even though he was never fired.

The team has played this year like it has never bought in to the message the coaching staff has given. 

The Dolphins are going to lose, and they're going to lose hard. The Andrew Luck sweepstakes are in full swing in Miami. 

Pick: New York 41, Miami 10