NFL Picks Week 8: Game-by-Game Analysis, 10-2-1 Against the Spread in Week 7

Welcome back to my weekly NFL picks column. This week we have 13 games on tap. Just to reiterate what this column is about. Each and every week, I will make a pick both straight up, and against the spread. I also will give you my lock of the week.

I started this column in Week 7, so even though I have been making the picks all year on my blog, the year to date totals start from Week 7.

Week 7 Results 

Straight Up:  10-3

Against the Spread: 10-2-1

Lock of the Week: Winner

Year to Date (Starting from Week 7)

Straight Up: 10-3

Against the Spread: 10-2-1

Lock of the Week: 1-0

Onto the games for the week.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

The Indianapolis Colts travel to take on the Tennessee Titans this week. In Week 7 the Colts were absolutely embarrassed on Sunday Night Football, and the Titans were destroyed by a Houston Texans team playing without its two best players. 

The Colts' weak run defense should allow for Chris Johnson to have his first decent game of the year. The Titans need to focus on running the football. This is a team that needs to run the ball to be effective long-term. Curtis Painter will be able to complete passes against the Tennessee secondary, and I see the Colts keeping this game close.

Current Line: Tennessee Titans -9

Prediction: Tennessee Titans 24, Indianapolis Colts 17

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

The Jacksonville Jaguars travel to take on the Houston Texans this Sunday. Both teams are coming off impressive victories in Week 7. Jacksonville was able to pull off an upset of the Baltimore Ravens, while the Houston Texans demolished the Tennessee Titans on the road.

Jacksonville has been a much better team at home, then on the road this season. With a short week, I think the hangover from beating the Ravens on Monday night takes its toll. The win against Baltimore had more to do with Baltimore failing to execute than it did with the Jags playing well. 

The Houston Texans are hopeful to get Andre Johnson back for this game, and with Arian Foster finally healthy this offense will be entirely too much to handle. 

Take the Texans laying the points this week.

Current Line: Houston Texans -9.5

Prediction: Houston Texans 31, Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers

The Minnesota Vikings travel to face the surprising Carolina Panthers this Sunday. The Vikings are fresh off a tough-played game at home versus the Green Bay Packers. I predicted last week that the Vikings would cover that spread, and they did. 

Christian Ponder will make his second NFL start this week for the Vikings. Expect the Vikings to hand the ball off to Adrian Peterson more than 25 times, as they try to relax Ponder in his first start on the road in the NFL.

The Carolina Panthers are 5-1 against the spread this year, and 4-0 against the spread at home. Cam Newton has revived this franchise, despite the running game for the Panthers struggling at times. The Vikings secondary will get beat deep at least once to Steve Smith, and the Panthers will pull this game out.

Current Line: Carolina Panthers -3

Prediction: Carolina Panthers 27, Minnesota Vikings 20

New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams

The New Orleans Saints travel to take on the St. Louis Rams this week. Rams starting quarterback Sam Bradford is doubtful for this game, and without him the Rams will have very little chance to keep this game close. The Rams will lean heavily on Steven Jackson running the football, but will not be able to keep up with the Saints' scoring.

Look for the Saints to pull away early, and win this game by a wide margin.

Current Line: New Orleans Saints -13.5

Prediction: New Orleans Saints 41, St. Louis Rams 17

Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens

The Arizona Cardinals travel cross-country to take on the Baltimore Ravens this Sunday. Arizona is struggling, and quarterback Kevin Kolb has struggled since being traded to the Cardinals. 

The question in this game is fairly simple: Which Ravens team will show up? The Ravens at home have been dominant this year, easily beating the Jets, Steelers and Texans. On the road has been a completely different story, as the Ravens have lost to Jacksonville and Tennessee. 

From a betting standpoint, this is a game I would avoid. But if you are going to take a side, go with the Ravens. The Cardinals are a mess, and traveling cross-country is never easy for a football team.

Current Line: Baltimore Ravens -13

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens 34, Arizona Cardinals 20

Miami Dolphins at New York Giants

The Miami Dolphins travel to take on the New York Giants this Sunday. The Dolphins are winless on the season, and traveling to take on a rested Giants team coming off their bye week.

The New York Giants have an extremely rough schedule ahead of them after this week, and I think they take this game a little too lightly. 

The Giants could have several players returning from injury this week, and need to win this game before embarking on an extremely tough run in their schedule over the next five weeks.

While I will readily admit that the Giants could win in a blowout, my heart tells me that the Dolphins find a way to stay in this football game and cover the spread.

Current Line: New York Giants -10

Prediction: New York Giants 27, Miami Dolphins 20

Washington Redskins at Buffalo Bills

The Washington Redskins travel to take on the surprising Buffalo Bills this Sunday. The Bills are coming off their bye week, and will be well rested. The Redskins are coming off two losses in a row, and will need to right the ship if they have playoff aspirations.

With Redskins top running back Tim Hightower out for the season, they will look to Roy Helu and Ryan Torian to provide the running game for them. 

Buffalo will have too much offense for the Redskins in this game, and Fred Jackson will continue his fantastic season with another big game.

Current Line: Buffalo Bills -5.5

Prediction: Buffalo Bills 27, Washington Redskins 17

Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos

The Detroit Lions travel to take on the Denver Broncos this Sunday. The Broncos are coming off a thrilling comeback to beat the Miami Dolphins last week. The Lions have lost two games in a row, and have not looked like the same team that opened the season with five straight wins.

Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow has been stellar late in games, but will need to play well through the first three quarters to keep the Broncos in the game.

As much as I consider Tebow to be a winner, I do not see the Lions losing three straight games. They right the ship this week and pull out a victory.

Current Line: Detroit Lions -3

Prediction: Detroit Lions 31, Denver Broncos 24

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (Lock of the Week )

The New England Patriots travel to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers this Sunday. This line opened up at 1.5, which is way too small in my opinion. The Steelers, while still talented, are not the same team you have seen over the past few years. 

The Patriots will be able to move the ball up and down the field, and with several players on the Steelers still banged up, the Patriots will win this football game.

Current Line: New England Patriots -2.5

Prediction: New England Patriots 31, Pittsburgh Steelers 27

Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers

The Cleveland Browns travel to take on the San Francisco 49ers this Sunday. The Browns are fresh off scoring six points in a victory over the Seattle Seahawks. The Browns' starting running back, Peyton Hillis, is questionable for this game with a hamstring injury. 

The 49ers defense should have little trouble slowing down the Browns offense without Hillis, and look for the 49ers to have a lot of success running the football. Running back Frank Gore has three consecutive games of over 125 yards and a touchdown. Michael Crabtree should be able to find openings in the Cleveland secondary, and have a very productive game.

The 49ers are undefeated against the spread so far this season, and it continues this week with a rout of the Browns.

Current Line: San Francisco 49ers -9

Prediction: San Francisco 49ers 34, Cleveland Browns 13

Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks

The Cincinnati Bengals travel to take on the Seattle Seahawks this Sunday. The Seahawks are fresh off scoring three points in a loss to the Cleveland Browns. The Bengals are rested coming off their bye week.

The Bengals will be without their starting running back Cedric Benson, who is serving his one-game suspension for conduct this offseason. Bernard Scott will get the start, and should find success against the Seahawks run defense.

Seattle is a very tough place to play, but I expect the Bengals to pull this game out. While the team is young, and headed up by a rookie quarterback Andy Dalton, this team believes in itself.

Current Line: Cincinnati Bengals -3

Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals 24, Seattle Seahawks 17

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

The Dallas Cowboys travel to take on the Philadelphia Eagles this week for Sunday Night Football. With the Philadelphia Eagles sitting at 2-4, this is a must-win game for them. The crowd in Philadelphia will be going wild against their hated rival, the Cowboys. 

The Cowboys come into town with a 3-3 record, but those three losses have come by a combined 11 points. Rookie running back DeMarco Murray, fresh off his 253-yard performance in his first NFL start, will get the start again and will find success on the ground. I expect Murray to exceed 100 yards on the ground, and get in the end zone. 

The key to this game for the Eagles is to win the turnover battle. If not for turnovers, the Eagles would be undefeated coming into this game. Andy Reid is 12-0 as the Eagles coach after their bye week, and I think that trend continues. Look for the Eagles to have a big day offensively.

Current Line: Philadelphia Eagles -3

Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles 31, Dallas Cowboys 24

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

The San Diego Chargers travel to take on the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football this week. The Chargers are coming off a tough loss to the New York Jets, while the Chiefs have righted the ship and won three games in a row, after starting out with three losses.

These two teams played a month ago in San Diego, with the Chargers winning by three points. Since that game the Chiefs have come alive and found a running game behind journeyman running back Jackie Battle. 

The Chargers are not playing great football right now, and quarterback Philip Rivers has been struggling. Kansas City is a tough place to play, and the Chiefs will be up for this game. Expect Dwayne Bowe to have a monster game, and the Chiefs to pull this game out.

Current Line: San Diego Chargers -4

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 27, San Diego Chargers 21