NFL Picks Week 6: Why Atlanta Falcons Will Fall to Underdog Carolina Panthers

It seems that the only thing Cam Newton hasn't yet done in his rookie campaign is win a game on the road. As it is, he's only won one game, period.

You have to give Newton credit, though. He sure has made losing look good.

At any rate, the oddsmakers don't think Newton is going to get his first road win this weekend. He and the Carolina Panthers are visiting the Atlanta Falcons, and the spread (per Bodog) has the Falcons favored by four points.

However, I do think Newton is going to get his first road win this weekend. It's not going to be easy, but I foresee the Panthers having just enough to come up with a tough win against their NFC South rivals.

My focus is not so much on what the Panthers can do, mind you. It's on what that Falcons can't do.

They can't play solid defense. The Falcons are allowing 26 points per game so far this season, and are also allowing over 383 yards of total offense. Both of these figures rank in the lower half of the league.

The primary culprit for these numbers is the Falcons' suspect pass defense, which ranks 28th in the NFL. This is partially thanks to Aaron Rodgers, who torched the Falcons for 396 yards this past Sunday, but Atlanta's numbers against the pass are by no means misleading. Their secondary can be beat.

This is not entirely the secondary's fault. Just like they did last year, the Falcons have issues rushing the passer, which is making life that much tougher for Brent Grimes, Dunta Robinson and others.

Against a dynamic duo like Newton and Steve Smith, this scares me. The Falcons have given up a lot of yards and a lot of points through the air, and I don't think this is going to change against the Panthers.

On the flip-side, the Panthers are also going to have their issues on defense in this game. Nobody has accused Carolina's defense of being elite. They have been decent against opposing passers, but not so decent against the run. Expect the Falcons to exploit that by utilizing Michael Turner early and often.

But at some point, this game is going to turn into a shootout. Whoever can score the most and come up with the biggest plays wins.

I would like Atlanta's chances in a fight like that if they had Julio Jones, but they're not going to. It was revealed on Wednesday (per the Associated Press) that Jones will be out on Sunday with a hamstring injury.

It's going to be a close game at the end, but I think the Panthers will build a lead and then hang on to it.

Panthers 31, Falcons 28