Projecting Selected Free Agents

To bring everything together with the projection posts I’ve made this week, here are some projections for some selected Free Agents.  I took a look at everybody mentioned in this RFB Round Table post, as well as some other guys I think could be interesting.

First, position players.

This table works very similarly to the hitters projection table.  Average wOBA = .329.

wOBA comes from the Marcel projections, FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average) comes from Sean Smith’s defensive projections.

Players who play multiple positions have separate projections for each position.  Note that the market value given is for 650 PAs.  I’ve also given a number for every 100 PAs.  This way, we can scale towards the amount of playing time that we’d expect and find the proper value.

Pos	Last	First	Age	wOBA	BRAA	FRAA	POSADJ	RAA	WAA	WAR	MarketValue/650 PA (M$)	Value/100 PA
3B	Crede	Joe	31	0.325	-2.26	10	2.5	10.24	0.98	2.83	13.71	2.11
CF	Langerhans	Ryan	29	0.310	-10.74	9	2.5	0.76	0.07	1.93	9.34	1.44
SS	Everett	Adam	32	0.28	-27.7	19	7.5	-1.2	-0.11	1.74	8.44	1.3
3B	Mientkiewicz	Doug	35	0.332	1.7	-6	2.5	-1.8	-0.17	1.69	8.16	1.25
1B	Mientkiewicz	Doug	35	0.332	1.7	7	-12.5	-3.8	-0.36	1.49	7.23	1.11
LF/RF	Langerhans	Ryan	29	0.310	-10.74	14	-7.5	-4.24	-0.4	1.45	7.03	1.08
LF/RF	Kapler	Gabe	34	0.337	4.52	-2	-7.5	-4.98	-0.47	1.38	6.69	1.03
SS	Punto	Nick	32	0.299	-16.96	3	7.5	-6.46	-0.61	1.24	6.01	0.92
3B	Hinske	Eric	32	0.330	0.57	-10	2.5	-6.93	-0.66	1.2	5.79	0.89
2B	Everett	Adam	32	0.28	-27.7	16	2.5	-9.2	-0.88	0.98	4.75	0.73
2B	Loretta	Mark	38	0.315	-7.91	-5	2.5	-10.41	-0.99	0.87	4.19	0.64
3B	Punto	Nick	32	0.299	-16.96	4	2.5	-10.46	-1	0.86	4.17	0.64
2B	Durham	Ray	38	0.325	-2.26	-11	2.5	-10.76	-1.02	0.83	4.03	0.62
1B	Hinske	Eric	32	0.330	0.57	-2	-12.5	-13.93	-1.33	0.53	2.57	0.39
2B	Punto	Nick	32	0.299	-16.96	-1	2.5	-15.46	-1.47	0.39	1.86	0.29
LF/RF	Hinske	Eric	32	0.330	0.57	-11	-7.5	-17.93	-1.71	0.15	0.72	0.11

Here we see our needs: a backup MIF, a backup OF, and a starting/platoon 3B.  I personally like Ryan Langerhans a lot because he’s an absolute stud in CF, and similarly I like Joe Crede a lot at 3B.  Langerhans will be cheap, but I’m not entirely sure what kind of contract we can expect for Crede.  He’s performed well in his time with the White Sox, but he’s been riddled with injuries, so we’ll have to see.

Eric Hinske was mentioned a lot here.  I don’t think he would work very well as a starter, but he could be an interesting platoon partner for Bill Hall.  Hinske has massive platoon splits (career .805 OPS vs. RHP against a .685 OPS vs. LHP) and could work well.  This would also leverage Hall’s platoon splits (.741/.847 R/L career).

I think Adam Everett would be a steal to put on the bench as our new Craig Counsell type player.  He’s a godawful hitter, but he could spell Hardy or Escobar once or twice a week and provide great defense, and he could play 2B in a pinch (but he’s wasted there).

Now some SPs

Average ERA = Average FIP = 4.34.  Replacement level for SPs = 5.65.

nameLast	nameFirst	Age	ERA	mFIP	ERARAA/160 IP	FIPRAA/160	ERAWAA/160	FIPWAA/160	WAR/160	Value/160	Value/10 IP
Sabathia	C.C.	29	3.22	3.23	19.91	19.73	1.9	1.88	4.1	19.83	1.24
Sheets	Ben	31	3.59	3.66	13.33	12.09	1.27	1.15	3.37	16.31	1.02
Lowe	Derek	36	3.65	3.7	12.27	11.38	1.17	1.08	3.3	15.98	1
Burnett	A.J.	32	3.97	3.85	6.58	8.71	0.63	0.83	3.05	14.75	0.92
Johnson	Randy	46	4.33	4.12	0.18	3.91	0.02	0.37	2.59	12.54	0.78
Penny	Brad	31	4.25	4.17	1.6	3.02	0.15	0.29	2.51	12.13	0.76
Garland	Jon	30	4.5	4.48	-2.84	-2.49	-0.27	-0.24	1.98	9.59	0.6
Hendrickson	Mark	35	4.83	4.5	-8.71	-2.84	-0.83	-0.27	1.95	9.42	0.59
Perez	Oliver	28	4.22	4.57	2.13	-4.09	0.2	-0.39	1.83	8.85	0.55
Looper	Braden	35	4.42	4.58	-1.42	-4.27	-0.14	-0.41	1.81	8.77	0.55
Perez	Odalis	32	4.95	4.59	-10.84	-4.44	-1.03	-0.42	1.79	8.69	0.54
Pavano	Carl	33	4.79	4.67	-8	-5.87	-0.76	-0.56	1.66	8.03	0.5

Well, these guys are all incredibly expensive. That’s the way it is for SPs, though, because they throw so many innings and a replacment level SP is really, really bad.  Personally, I think the best deal on this list will be Randy Johnson.  He’s still pitching amazingly well even though he’s in his mid 40s, and as a result he likely isn’t looking for a long-term deal.  The D-Back’s tried to sign him for 7.5 million and he declined, but it’s likely he will be paid less than he was last year (15M). I suspect that Garland will not be a bargain and I think we should stay away from him, even though he possibly could be helped by a move to the NL.

I personally think that the best bargain on this list will be Brad Penny, due to his struggles in recent seasons.  However, it looks like he could still have some decent seasons left in him, and in this down market,  f he could be had for less than 9 million/season, I think it would be an incredible deal for the Brewers.

Some of the guys at the bottom of the list could be potential bottom of the rotation guys, but are probably unnecessary at this point.

Now for RPs.  I’ve listed both WAR and LWAR here.  LWAR, in this case, is Leveraged Wins Above Replacement.  In this case, I’m assuming if any of these guys were moved into the closer role, they would face an average situation with a Leverage Index of 1.93.  LWAR is found, then, by 1.93 * WAR.

The bolded numbers are WAR/80 IP.  I’ve also supplied LWAR/80, WAR/10, and LWAR/10.

nameLast	nameFirst	Age	ERA	mFIP	ERARAA/80	FIPRAA/80	ERAWAA/80	FIPWAA/80	WAR/80	LWAR/80	Value/80	Lvalue/80	Value/10	Lvalue/10
Rodriguez	Francisco	27	3.27	3.41	9.51	8.27	0.95	0.83	1.05	2.03	5.08	9.83	0.64	1.23
Wood	Kerry	32	3.76	3.46	5.16	7.82	0.52	0.78	1.01	1.94	4.88	9.43	0.61	1.18
Fuentes	Brian	34	3.63	3.70	6.31	5.69	0.63	0.57	0.8	1.55	3.89	7.53	0.49	0.94
Beimel	Joe	32	3.78	3.93	4.98	3.64	0.5	0.36	0.61	1.18	2.95	5.71	0.37	0.71
Hoffman	Trevor	42	3.74	4.04	5.33	2.67	0.53	0.27	0.52	1	2.5	4.83	0.31	0.6