2012 NFL Draft: Andrew Luck Sweepstakes Is Being Monitored Closely in Las Vegas

Stanford Cardinal quarterback Andrew Luck is going to be selected with the No. 1 pick in the 2012 NFL draft on April 26, 2012.

The national sports media has already stoked the fire of teams possibly tanking the 2011 season to have an opportunity of possibly selecting the current Heisman Trophy front runner. 

Discussions like this are just another story for sports fans, but Las Vegas oddsmakers are on alert, as sharp bettors are preparing to take some major swings down the road.

This has led me to research the topic, examining three current teams that lead the discussion, while also looking back at six situations that found a sure-fire No. 1 starting quarterback awaiting the team who finished with the league's worst record.

It's safe to say that every person that wagers on the NFL should read this article.

Denver Broncos

Many are questioning if Denver Broncos Executive Vice President of Football Operations John Elway is positioning the franchise to potentially grab the top pick.

Who can blame him as a former Stanford quarterback.

The argument doesn't have any legs at the present time, as the team has been involved in four games that have been decided by five points or less.

From a betting standpoint, no evidence displays that fact, even if the team enters its bye week with a 1-4 against-the-spread record.

Could 2010 No. 1 pick Tim Tebow ruin the behind-the-scenes plan?

The Miami Dolphins may have him looking like Johnny Unitas if they fall to 0-5 after this week's Monday Night Football contest against the New York Jets.

The Broncos and Dolphins will meet in Week 7 inside Sun Life Stadium.

Indianapolis Colts

The most unexpected team to fall into this article, but they're one that motivated me to write it.

Quarterback Peyton Manning is likely out for the season with a neck injury, and the 35-year-old franchise player isn't getting any younger.

From a betting perspective, the Colts are 2-3 ATS on the season, but red sirens started going off in last week's 28-24 home loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Perhaps no other team in the league would have failed to score a point in the final 30 minutes of play against the league's worst scoring defense.

Oddsmakers are watching—with eyes wide open.

Miami Dolphins

Could Miami Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano save his job by going 0-16 this season?

With starting quarterback Chad Henne out for the rest of the year with a shoulder injury, the franchise could be longing for the days of Dan Marino under center.

Luck is certainly that type of player, but Marino was chosen with the No. 27 pick in the 1983 NFL draft, coincidentally 26 spots behind Elway.

Coincidence?

I think not.

The Dolphins are 0-3-1 ATS on the season, failing to cover those three spread losses by an average of just 5.83 points a game.

2008-09 Detroit Lions

There's always a silver lining after going 0-16 in the regular season, as you are almost assured of receiving the top pick in next year's draft.

That's exactly what happened in 2008-09, with Detroit beating out the Kansas City Chiefs (2-14) and St. Louis Rams (2-14) for the honor.

The Lions finished that season on a 3-1 ATS run, but it's important to note that all three of those spread victories came as double-digit underdogs.

Not exactly hard to disguise.

Also, the team's 31-21 defeat as 11-point road underdogs in the season finale against Green Bay can be thrown out, as it was already assured of the top pick.

2002-03 Cincinnati Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals clearly went into the tank in order to grab USC Trojans star Carson Palmer with the No. 1 pick in the 2003 NFL draft.

First off, the team's lone competition for the honor was the Detroit Lions, who actually won three of their first eight games that season. 

The Lions finished the year on an eight-game losing streak, failing to cover the spread in five of those contests.

Cincinnati didn't cash a ticket for bettors in four of its last five games, picking up a 20-13 win over the New Orleans Saints in Week 16 as seven-point home underdogs.

With the potential of being locked in a tie with the Lions heading into their season finale, the Bengals put forth a listless effort in a 27-9 loss to the Buffalo Bills when getting a touchdown on the road.

What's even more alarming about this tank job from a betting perspective, Cincinnati was a double-digit underdog just twice, covering both times.

The final tally had the Bengals finishing the season with a 4-12 ATS record.

2000-01 San Diego Chargers

The 2000-01 San Diego Chargers went 1-15 and were favored in just one game that season, dropping a 28-27 home contest against the New Orleans Saints.

What's significant from a betting perspective is the team's clear dropoff in the final four weeks, failing to cover the spread by an average of 10.875 points a game.

The prize in the 2001 NFL draft was Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Michael Vick, who ended up getting drafted by the Atlanta Falcons after not coming to terms with the Chargers.

San Diego made out OK, picking up running back LaDainian Tomlinson and Drew Brees within the first 32 picks of the draft.

1997-98 Indianapolis Colts

The 1998 NFL Draft was known for the Indianapolis Colts choosing quarterback Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf, as many experts placed the two in the can't-miss category.

We all know how that turned out.

What's interesting about the 1997-98 regular season, Indianapolis actually won two of its last three games, finishing with a league-worst 3-13 record.

Four other teams fell just a game behind in the sweepstakes, which resulted in San Diego taking Leaf with the No. 2 pick.

The Chargers weren't expecting to be there, winning four of their first eight games, but the quest of grabbing the top pick accelerated in the second half of the season.

Bettors that faded the franchise profited greatly, as San Diego dropped seven of its last eight games against the spread, with the final three missing the number by an average of 12.5 points.

Oakland got into the party late as well, losing eight of its last nine games straight-up, while failing to cover the spread in each defeat by an astounding 14 points a contest.

The failed attempt to grab each quarterback didn't end badly for Raiders owner Al Davis, selecting Michigan Wolverines quarterback Charles Woodson with the fourth pick overall.

Chicago fans should be proud that its beloved team didn't participate in tanking the season, winning three of its final five games.

The Bears did happen to have quarterbacks Erik Kramer and Rick Mirer on the roster.

In hindsight, maybe the Windy City shouldn't have covered those contests.

What in the world were the Arizona Cardinals thinking in tallying a 29-26 win over the Atlanta Falcons as three-point home underdogs in Week 17.

The Cardinals were actually trailing in that game by a 20-14 score before outscoring the Falcons by a 15-6 margin in the final 15 minutes.

Perhaps the rally was a direct result of the scoreboard already showing the Colts wrapping up the top pick with a 39-28 loss to the Minnesota Vikings.

Ultimately, the team drafted Florida State Seminoles defensive end Andre Wadsworth with the fourth overall pick, who ended up with just eight career sacks in two-plus seasons of action.

1992-93 New England Patriots

The New England Patriots clearly won out on the race for Washington State Cougars quarterback Drew Bledsoe, as the Seattle Seahawks finished with the same 2-14 record to end the 1992-93 season.

What's interesting is the team started the season with nine consecutive losses, rattled off a two-game winning streak—before dropping the final five games.

The alarming period in the pursuit of Bledsoe started in Week 12, as the team was shutout out in back-to-back games following the winning streak.

Seattle was favored just once during the year, but bettors turned a profit in five of the last six games.

Hard to say if either went in the tank, but my money is squarely on the team that resides in the AFC East.

1988-89 Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys really had no threat in obtaining the No. 1 pick in the 1989 draft, which led them to pick up a 24-17 win over the Washington Redskins as seven-point road underdogs in Week 16.

Betting against the team was a profitable angle in the pursuit of UCLA Bruins quarterback Troy Aikman down the stretch, failing to cover in six of the final eight games.

During the same span in Aikman's rookie campaign, Dallas registered a 5-3 ATS mark.

Hmm.