Ryan Howard: What to Expect from Slugger Upon Return

Ryan Howard added injury to insult when he tore his Achilles on the final groundout of Philadelphia’s failed NLDS battle with St. Louis. The latest projections (from Sports Radio 94 WIP via Twitter) have Howard out of action until at least May or June of next season.

There’s little doubt that the Phillies’ offense is going to be hurting until the big man returns. Even after he’s back in the lineup, though, Philadelphia may not get the kind of year they’d like out of their high-priced first baseman.

Howard’s production was already dipping even before the injury. Between 2009 and this year, his OPS dropped from a daunting .931 to a more ordinary .835 (which didn’t even beat out Shane Victorino’s figure for this season).

And, while Howard certainly isn’t going to be worried about stealing bases on his tender ankle, he needs a solid base to create the power in his home-run swing. His timing will almost certainly be off when he first gets back on the diamond, even if he waits until the ankle is 100 percent.

Worse, if he comes back too early and starts favoring the ankle, his production could take a nosedive.

The rehab effort also won’t be helped by Howard’s bulk. His 6-foot-4 240-pound build isn’t excessive for a power hitter, but it will mean more weight to put on the ankle and more potential to aggravate it during the recovery process.

Assuming Howard is back by June 1, he’ll have missed roughly a third of the season. Chop a third off his home run totals from the last couple of years, and you’re looking at something like 20 homers contributed to the Phils’ cause.

Adjust that figure for having to get up to speed midseason and for the difficulty of swinging for the fences on a rebuilt ankle, and Philadelphia will be lucky to get 15 dingers out of its best power hitter in 2012.