MLB Playoffs 2011: C.J. Wilson Needs To Be ALCS MVP for Texas Rangers To Win

If the Rangers can't find a way to at least split against the Tigers in Justin Verlander's two starts, they will have a problem making a return trip to the World Series.

Top to bottom, the Rangers do have the better offense. However, that was also the case in last year's World Series against the Giants. The only difference is that the Giants' offense in 2010 wasn't as potent as the Rangers' in 2011.

As far as the rest of the pitching staff, I give a slight edge to the Tigers. It's very close and the Rangers do all have the experience of last year's playoff run, but I would still call Detroit slightly better.

If Verlander beats Wilson twice—or the Tigers win those two games—then all Detroit needs to do is win two of the remaining five games. I like their chances in that run.

Don't get me wrong; Texas is not hopeless in this series. They do have the home field advantage and the memory of what they accomplished last year.

But in the 2010 ALCS, they beat a Yankees' team that just lacked any significant depth in the pitching rotation. The Tigers just beat virtually the same Yankees team, but that's another discussion for another day.

The Rangers offense has thump, but it's not significantly better than the one that Detroit just handled. Plus, Detroit had to win without the benefit of home field advantage.

The difference between the 2010 ALCS and the 2011 ALCS is that the Rangers are facing a team with a much more competent pitching rotation beyond the ace and before the closer.

Now, I did say that the series sets up well for the Tigers if they manage a sweep in Verlander's starts. The exact same thing is true for Texas if they manage at least a split.

Unless those games go significantly differently than expected, runs will be at a premium. So, if Wilson manages at least a split in those two games, he will be well on his way to winning the series MVP. If he can't do that, Detroit will win the American League Championship.