NFL Picks Week 4: 3 Favorites Sure to Fall

The NFL schedule for Week 4 features plenty of games that should come down to the wire.

In Week 3, we saw the Bills upset the Patriots, the Raiders handle the Jets, and the Giants stick it to their division rivals, the Eagles. It’s too early in the season for any team to be a true lock, which means a lot of down-to-the-wire games for the league’s loyal fans.

The winners of this week’s games do seem a lot more predictable than lasts’, but there are still a few favorites who are sure to struggle in Week 4. Whether it be false accomplishments, unfavorable road match-ups, or simply mismatches in personnel, these three favorites will fall in Week 4.

3. Cleveland Browns (-1) vs. Tennessee Titans

Even without Peyton Hillis, the Cleveland Browns managed to squeak past the Dolphins in Week 3, improving to 2-1. They have shown excellent poise on defense in the red zone and Colt McCoy seems to be coming into his own at quarterback.

The Tennessee Titans are coming off back-to-back victories of their own. They handled the Broncos in Week 3 and shocked the Ravens the week before. Matt Hasselbeck looks a lot younger than 36, as he continues to make good decisions on offense.

The Titans lost their best wide receiver in Kenny Britt for the rest of 2011, but guys like Nate Washington and Jared Cook should have no trouble filling the void. Chris Johnson has done virtually nothing for the 2-1 Titans. I expect him to finally break out in Week 4 as the Browns fall at home.

Prediction: Titans 24, Browns 13

2. Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs

The only game that the Kansas City Chiefs are considered favorites in is the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. After losing stud running back Jamaal Charles and ever improving safety Eric Berry to season ending knee injuries, Chiefs fans are left with little to cheer about.

Minnesota heads into Kansas City for a Week 4 matchup in which the Chiefs are underdogs at home. In spite of a now patchwork roster, Arrowhead Stadium remains one of the most difficult stadiums to play in on the road.

The Chiefs held their own in Week 3 against a San Diego Chargers team who some consider a favorite in the AFC. Dexter McCluster showed promise out of the backfield, and Matt Cassell looks like he’s finally getting into a groove.

The Chiefs won’t finish a winning record this season; they’ll probably finish last in their division. However, a shaky Minnesota Vikings team shouldn’t be a problem for the Chiefs at home in Week 4.

Prediction: Chiefs 20, Vikings 17

1. New England Patriots (-7) @ Oakland Raiders

I’ll probably get a lot of flak for this one, but hear me out.

The Oakland Raiders’ strength is clearly their running game. Darren McFadden leads the league in rushing and is on absolute fire. Michael Bush is one of the better backups in the NFL. Fred Jackson averaged 6.2 yards per carry against them in Week 3, Ryan Mathews averaged 5.3 against them in Week 2, and Reggie Bush looked like a legitimate lead back against them in Week 1.

If the Raiders and McFadden can be effective on the ground, they’ll be able to control the clock and keep Tom Brady off of the field. If their defense can force a turnover or two, this game could look a lot like their Week 3 matchup against the Jets, which they won 34-24.

Brady will move the ball and the Patriots will score their points, but this seven-point spread feels sketchy. The Patriots are notoriously good coming off a loss, but Oakland won’t have any trouble moving the ball. If they can force a key turnover late, this game will look a lot like the Pats, Bills classic from Week 3.

Prediction: Raiders 34, Patriots 31  

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