NFL Predictions Week 4: Oddsmakers Continue to Score Big on Home Underdogs

Week 3 of the 2011 NFL regular season was one of the more exciting that I can remember, as many games were decided in the final seconds.

Las Vegas bookmakers have scored some huge wins on home underdogs in consecutive weeks, as the Minnesota Vikings (+4) dropped a 26-23 overtime contest to the Detroit Lions but came away winners against the spread.

The previous week saw the Tennessee Titans shock the betting world as 5.5-point home underdogs, tallying a 26-13 win over the Baltimore Ravens.

Let's take an early look at Week 4 from a betting perspective.

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears need to find a way to protect quarterback Jay Cutler, or he might not last as long as Kristin Cavallari in ABC's Dancing with the Stars.

Carolina was fortunate to come away with a 16-10 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars as 3.5-point home favorites Sunday—winning the total yardage battle by just eight yards.

Handicapper Line: Chicago Bears (-5.5)

Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs had a glimmer of hope of pulling off a monumental upset against the San Diego Chargers as double-digit road underdogs, but then Matt Cassel continued their terrible season.

Minnesota has lost three consecutive games after holding double-digit leads at halftime.

Something has to give.

Handicapper Line: Kansas City Chiefs (-1)

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals

The Buffalo Bills are an improbable 3-0, winning back-to-back games in come-from-behind fashion against the Oakland Raiders and New England Patriots.

I'm not quite ready to place them as road favorites—at least not this week.

Cincinnati is a terrible home favorite, dropping a 13-8 contest to the San Francisco 49ers.

Possible underdog trap?

Absolutely.

Handicapper Line: Cincinnati Bengals (-2)

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns

The Tennessee Titans are 2-1 on the season despite running back Chris Johnson being one of the worst players in the 2011 regular season.

Cleveland is 2-1 but has played one of the easiest schedules that I can ever remember through three weeks.

It's important to note that Titans wide receiver Kenny Britt was injured in the second quarter, but quarterback Matt Hasselbeck should be respected at this point.

Handicapper Line:  Tennessee Titans (-1.5)

New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars

The New Orleans Saints are one of the best teams in the league, bouncing back from an opening night loss to the Green Bay Packers, winning back-to-back home games against the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans.

Jacksonville had every chance in the world, but baby sat quarterback Blaine Gabbert in a 16-10 loss to the Carolina Panthers as 3.5-point road underdogs.

Oddsmakers have no choice but to place a premium on this game.

Handicapper Line: New Orleans (-6.5)

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks

Both teams come in with a 1-2 record, but public perception will force the bookmakers to inflate the line.

Seattle is one of the best home underdogs in the league, capturing a 13-10 win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2, but Atlanta has to be respected as a road favorite.

Handicapper Line: Atlanta Falcons (-7)

New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals

The New York Giants have officially caught the eye of the casual bettor, picking up wins over the St. Louis Rams and Philadelphia Eagles in consecutive weeks.

Arizona has dropped back-to-back contests to some of the weaker teams in terms of public perception entering the season.

Oddsmakers have to make the Giants road favorites.

Handicapper Line: New York Giants (-3)

New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders

Under normal circumstances, a sports bettor would get some value on a team after a loss.

That's never going to happen with the New England Patriots with Tom Brady under center.

Oakland has tallied a perfect 3-0 against-the-spread record, while posting a 2-1 straight-up mark due to letting one slip away in Buffalo.

What's a linesmaker to do?

Handicapper Line: New England Patriots (-4)

Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers are doing just enough to get by, entering Week 4 with a perfect 3-0 record.

Bettors will continue to line up in great numbers to bet last year's Super Bowl champions until they are handed a defeat.

Denver is one of those teams that the public is simply going to disregard, which is going to cause this line to be sent off at an inflated price.

Handicapper Line:  Green Bay Packers (-11.5)

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers

Las Vegas is going to start lining the Miami Dolphins road games as if they are playing at Sun Life Stadium.

Despite an 0-3 record, the Dolphins are always a dangerous underdog away from South Beach. Perhaps moving from a road underdog to favorite cost them today's game.

The San Diego Chargers continue to underachieve and are one of the toughest teams to handicap in the NFL.

Handicapper Line: San Diego Chargers (-8)

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens

The New York Jets out-gained the Oakland Raiders by 56 yards in dropping a 34-24 contest as three-point road favorites, but oddsmakers still have a lot of respect for this team.

Baltimore has been one of the more visually impressive teams in two of three weeks this season, which may have the betting public jumping on them at a price of under a touchdown.

Handicapper Line: Baltimore Ravens (-4.5)