Fantasy Football Analysis: Who to Start, Who to Sit and Hail Marys

Drunken Sportsmen@@DrunknSportsmenContributor IIISeptember 23, 2011

Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills offense have been explosive.
Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills offense have been explosive.Rick Stewart/Getty Images

You don't need me to tell you to start your studs. Here you will find some guys that I project to have good or bad games based on matchups. Some of these picks will apply more to deeper or two quarterback leagues until bye weeks start. I will also pick some players I have nothing more than a hunch will be Hail Mary picks.

Start 'em

Last week's Starts that made us look: 

Good: QB Rex Grossman, RB James Starks

Bad: RB Cedric Benson, WR Plaxico Burress

Average: QB Matt Schaub

QB Cam Newton (Carolina) vs. Jaguars

Newton has averaged 425 passing yards, 35 rushing yards and 2.5 total TDs per game, in his first two career starts. The Panthers have abandoned their powerful running game and let Newton air it out. The Jaguars have allowed at least two passing TDs per game this season.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw & Brandon Jacobs (New York Giants) vs. Eagles

The Eagles defense is strong against the pass but the are 3rd worst against the run, allowing 146 yards per game. The Giants are hurt at WR and Eli Manning has been incompetent this season. Look for the G-Men to force the running game on the Eagles.

WR Eric Decker (Denver) vs. Titans

Decker missed most of 2010 with a foot injury, but has seen his role expand this season. With injuries to Brandon Lloyd and Eddie Royal, he broke out with five catches for 113 yards and two TDs in Week 2 vs. the Bengals. Royal will be out for three to four games, cementing Decker as a starter. The Broncos could be playing from behind and need to rely on the pass in Week 3.

TE Fred Davis (Washington) vs. Cowboys

Fred Davis has put up big numbers whenever he has filled in for TE Chris Cooley in the past. This season, they have both been playing and Davis has still been putting up nice stats. With the lack of WRs, the Redskins' Davis and Cooley should be able to co-exist. The Cowboys secondary has been riddled with injuries and allowed two TDs to the 49ers last week.

Sit 'em

Last week's sits that made us look: 

Good: QB Kerry Collins, WR Chad Ochocinco, RB Marshawn Lynch

Bad: QB Matt Hasselback, WR Steve Smith

QB Tony Romo/Jon Kitna (Dallas) vs. Redskins

I'm not sure I trust Romo to play effectively with broken ribs and a punctured lung, especially if he takes a couple hits. No matter which QB Dallas starts they will have a tough assignment with injuries to all of their starting skill players; Miles Austin (Hamstring), Dez Bryant (Quad), Felix Jones (Shoulder) and Jason Witten (Bruised Ribs). Leave your Cowboys on the bench Monday night against the Redskins.

QB Donovan McNabb (Minnesota) vs. Lions

McNabb has not looked good this season and only has 267 passing yards and one TD through two games. The Lions defense is No. 7 in passing yards allowed and No. 2 in points allowed.

RB Cedric Benson (Cincinnati) vs. 49ers

Last week, I started Benson and he disappointed this week will be no different as he goes against the top rushing defense the 49ers, who have held Felix Jones to 25 yards and Marshawn Lynch to 33 yards this season.

RB Reggie Bush (Miami) vs. Browns

Bush started the season as the lead back and saw his touches seriously decline in Week 2. Rookie Daniel Thomas got 19 touches to Bush's seven last week. Until Bush's role is more defined leave him reserve.

Hail Marys

Last week's Hail Marys that made us look:

Good: QB Alex Smith, WR Nate Burleson

Bad: None did last week

Average: QB Chad Henne, WR Brandon Gibson

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buffalo) vs. Patriots

Fitzpatrick has seven TDs through two games against bad teams and while the Patriots certainly aren't a bad team, their defense is ranked 31st, allowing 478 yards per game and 381 yards per game in the air. I fully expect that Buffalo will trail in this game and Fitzpatrick will rack up some big yards.

QB Jay Cutler (Chicago) vs. Packers

Its always hard to rely on Cutler. But, he only has one INT in the first two games and the Bears play a Packers team that is ranked 32nd against the pass allowing 400 yards per game. Seems like a good week to take a chance on him.

WR Denarius Moore (Oakland) vs. Jets

The ultra-talented Moore was finally given some time due to injuries to Jacoby Ford, Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bey and had  a huge game earning himself more playing time even when the injured players return. It's a tough matchup versus the Jets secondary but I have a hunch Moore will perform well.

WR Nate Washington (Tennessee) vs. Broncos

Kenny Britt has been tearing defenses apart this season and could draw Champ Bailey, who missed Week 2 and who Hasselback may make think twice about throwing to. So take a chance on Britt.

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