NFL Picks Week 3: Michael Turner Key for Atlanta Falcons vs. Buccaneers

There are times when you come up against a game that is just plain hard to predict. This Sunday's tilt between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers is a perfect example.

The tricky part, I think, is that we don't really know how good these teams are yet. The Falcons are coming off a good win over the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Buccaneers are coming off a good win over the Minnesota Vikings. Exactly what each team will make of its win is the mystery.

That's probably why the spread for this game has the Buccaneers favored by a single point. They got the nod because they're the home team, but that's about it.

In my estimation, games like this come down to a single X factor. In this case, I think that X factor is Falcons running back Michael Turner.

Despite the fact he has been one of the most productive running backs in the league in recent years, Turner is also probably one of the most under appreciated players in the league. He is oftentimes overlooked even within his own offense, which contains the likes of Matt Ryan, Roddy White and super-rookie Julio Jones.

But Turner is a workhorse, and he's played that part to perfection in Atlanta's first two games, rushing for 214 yards on 31 carries, an average of 6.9 yards per carry.

As for why Turner is a problem for the Bucs, that's simple. It's because stopping the run has been a problem for them.

Through two games, the Bucs are giving up an average of 156 rushing yards per game, a figure that ranks 31st in the league. They were last seen getting torched by Adrian Peterson in Minnesota, and Toby Gerhart got in on the fun too.

Sure, the Bucs handled Jahvid Best pretty well in Week 1, but I wouldn’t read too much into that. Best is more of an explosive athlete than he is a true running back.

The reason I think Turner’s presence is going to be such a big deal is because it’s the most important mismatch this game has to offer. If Turner can run, the Falcons are going to be in control. Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman are pretty equally matched, and neither defense is water-tight, so the advantage Atlanta has in Turner should be the only advantage they really need.

Prediction: Falcons 28, Buccaneers 21