Texas and Florida Flip-Flop In Latest OCGR

Sometimes, not playing is better than playing.  That was the case this past week as Texas sat at home and jumped Florida.  Florida hurt their strength of schedule playing the Citadel, thus they dropped over four points in their rating.

Utah, Penn State, USC, and Oklahoma are separated by only 0.28 points.  Alabama still struggles in the OCGR at the seventh spot.

(Ratings as of November 23)

Rank	Team	Record	OCGR	PvWk
1	Texas	10-1	77.31	2
2	Florida	10-1	76.12	1
3	Utah	12-0	67.36	5
4	Penn State	11-1	67.34	7
5	USC	9-1	67.18	3
6	Oklahoma	10-1	67.08	6
7	Alabama	11-0	63.06	8
8	Georgia	9-2	61.29	10
9	Texas Tech	10-1	58.68	4
10	TCU	10-2	58.08	NR
11	Ohio State	10-2	57.79	9
12	Oklahoma State	9-2	56.32	12
13	Boise State	11-0	56.30	11
14	Missouri	9-2	54.46	13
15	Ball State	11-0	44.49	16

(Dropped from ratings: No. 15 Michigan State)

Texas and Florida look like they could flip-flop again next week with Texas playing a weak Texas A&M squad while Florida gets an above-average Florida State team.  Utah is done for the season and would need the Longhorns and Gators to both lose to gain one of the top two spots.

USC has UCLA and Notre Dame left.  These two teams will not help USC's rating.  They need the Big 12 to basically destroy themselves to have even a shot in moving up.  Penn State is in the same boat.

Oklahoma has a good match-up with Oklahoma State.  Oklahoma cold possibly benefit more by Texas playing in the Big 12 Championship and losing.  Oklahoma could jump the other teams by beating the Cowboys and have Florida remain on top by beating Alabama.

As for the conference strength, the Big 12 holds a 0.0006 rating lead over the SEC.  The ACC still remains as a strong number three.

(Conference strength through games played on November 23)

Rank	Conference	OOC Record	Rating
1	Big 12	38-10	0.6495
2	SEC	36-8	0.6489
3	ACC	34-10	0.6291
4	Big East	28-12	0.6073
5	Big Ten	32-12	0.5906
6	MWC	25-11	0.5848
7	Pac-10	13-16	0.5111
8	WAC	17-18	0.4898
9	MAC	22-29	0.4741
10	Independents	16-25	0.4463
11	Conference USA	18-30	0.4414
12	Sun Belt	12-27	0.4172

After the past few weeks of studying data and stats, the OCGR will have a few changes going into the next season.  The conference strength ratings will have a slight change in its formula.  Also, the ranges for the different statistical categories will be produced from obtaining the 95% confidence intervals for the past five years of football statistics.  The Field Goal Kicker and strength of schedule categories' ranges will also have minimal changes.

To view last week's OCGR, click here.

To view the OCGR home page for more insight behind the OCGR and this week's ratings using the new formulas and ranges, click here.