Boston Red Sox: Why They Will Hold on to Wild Card Lead

Up until a few weeks ago, it was all but certain that the Boston Red Sox would clinch their spot in the 2011 Major League Baseball playoffs.

But after losing 10 of 13 games in August, including a three game series to the charging Tampa Bay Rays, the Red Sox no longer look to be a lock for the post season.

With the Rays now just four games back of the Red Sox for the Wild Card, they opened a four game series at Fenway Park Thursday night with a win to pull within three.

Best case scenario for the Rays is a sweep, which would bring them to a tie with the slumping Red Sox, but more than likely, the Red Sox will win a game or two having their two aces pitching two of the four games.

If the Red Sox can win at least one, they enter the last 10 games of the season with a two game lead in the Wild Card. Those 10 games are against teams they have fared very well against this season, the Baltimore Orioles and the New York Yankees.

In 11 games against the Orioles this season, the Red Sox are 8-3. In 15 against the Yankees, they are 11-4. Seven of the remaining 10 come against the Orioles which bodes well for the Red Sox postseason chances.

The Rays, on the other hand, play seven of their remaining 10 games against the first place Yankees, a team they have not fared well against up to this point. 

In 11 games against the Yankees the Rays have won just five as the Rays offense has failed to match that of the high powered Yankees.

The schedule plays into the Red Sox favor as well as guys getting healthy. 

Josh Beckett plans to start Friday against the Rays, good news for the Red Sox as their starting pitching has been disappointing lately.

Clay Buchholz has also picked up the intensity of his rehab and will throw a full bullpen session on Saturday. If everything goes well, he could pitch in a game before the end of the season.

The combination of a weaker schedule in their remaining 10 games and important pieces becoming healthy will allow the Red Sox to hold on to the Wild Card lead and return to the playoffs after missing them in 2010.