NFL Picks Week 2: 2 Underdogs Sure to Cover the Spread

NFL underdogs finished Week 1 with a 9-7 against-the-spread record, and we were successful in cashing in on two of them.

I'm a very situational handicapper and believe that one of Monday night's contests has supplied us with some tremendous value in two games this week.

Public perception is a huge part of handicapping football during early portions of the season.

Let's take a look at two underdogs that will have you cashing tickets on Sunday.

Houston Texans (-3) at Miami Dolphins

Throw out a 99-yard touchdown by the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins were out-gained by just 35 yards on Monday night.

Miami's sixth-ranked defense from a year ago was embarrassed by allowing a franchise-high 622 yards.  It's certainly a cause for concern, but I'm treating it as a one-off situation.

Houston is coming off an uneventful 34-7 win over the Indianapolis Colts as nine-point favorites, a team that was without star quarterback Peyton Manning.

I expect such an opener to ultimately hurt the Texans in Week 2, especially against a home underdog that is eager to get back on the field.

From a situational standpoint, Houston has never covered back-to-back games as a betting favorite.

That fits nicely with the underdog covering all five meetings in this series.

Recommendation:  Miami Dolphins (+3)

San Diego at New England (-7)

The pre-2011 San Diego Chargers would have lost last week after surrendering a 103-yard kickoff return on the game's first play.

Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers answered immediately with a touchdown drive, proving that the team was eager to avoid another slow start under head coach Norv Turner.

Rivers is also one of the better signal-callers when being placed in the underdog role, posting a 10-5 ATS mark in his career.

I remember being in shock watching last year's meeting, as New England came away with a 23-20 win as 2.5-point road underdogs, despite gaining just 179 yards.

Patriots quarterback Tom Brady passed for 517 yards in the team's 38-24 win over the Miami Dolphins as seven-point road favorites, which has inflated this line by 1.5 points, in my opinion.

New England enters this contest off a short week and had to travel back from South Beach. 

I don't anticipate the Patriots improving their mediocre 12-12 ATS record after playing on Monday Night Football.

Recommendation:  San Diego Chargers (+7)