2011 NFL Predictions: MVP Odds for Michael Vick, Aaron Rodgers and More

MVP predictions are always a crap-shoot.

Who in their right mind would have thought that backup QB Michael Vick would have been neck-and-neck with Tom Brady to capture the 2010 award?  

This year the top candidates are once again all QBs. Aside from Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson…there are no players that hold even a tiny chance of securing the hardware.

Eight of the last 10 MVPs have been QBs—including the last four.

Here are the top MVP candidates and their odds of winning the prestigious award heading into the 2011 season.

6. Michael Vick—Philadelphia Eagles—25/1

There is no in-between with Vick and that’s why he is a horrible fantasy option and a risky MVP pick.

In any given game he can throw for 300 yards and three scores or break a leg that will cost him his season. Eagles fans will need their blood pressure medication every Sunday watching Vick tuck the ball and run.

Yet with the way defenses began to figure him out by the end of the season, I expect Vick to fall back to earth even if he does stay healthy.

5. Ben Roethlisberger—Pittsburgh Steelers—20/1

Big Ben has never put up great numbers statistically…up until 2009. He threw for over 4,300 yards and 26 TDs in ’09 and followed that up with 3,200 yards and 17 TDs in only 12 games last year.

The Steelers have slowly morphed into a pass first team with the incredible speed of the receivers. Mike Wallace is a potential 50-yard TD bomb on any given play and Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown are right behind him.

There has never been more speed in Pittsburgh.

That means the numbers on Big Ben are going to be huge. Assuming his team is right in the mix for the playoffs…he has a great shot of putting up a career year.

4. Tom Brady—New England Patriots—15/1

Last year’s winner has to be on the list, but odds are he won’t win again. Peyton Manning won the award in back-to-back years in ’08 and ’09, but before that there hadn’t been a repeat winner since Brett Favre did it three straight years in the mid-90’s.

Aside from Wes Welker he has a bunch of question marks surrounding him. The progression with Chad Ochocinco is coming slower than expected and it’s going to affect Brady’s numbers early on. Deion Branch didn’t catch a pass in the preseason and is looking to be well past his prime at this point.

It’s not going to be a terrible year for Brady, but he won’t be winning the MVP.

3. Aaron Rodgers—Green Bay Packers—10/1

The Super Bowl MVP is going into the season with a boatload of confidence. He’s got a ton of targets at his disposal and the sort of balanced offense that QBs dream about.

He’ll be one of the safe picks to win the award, but rarely does a Super Bowl winner play as well the season after.

The Packers are the team with the huge target on their collective backs and teams will treat the Packers like their own Super Bowl. Expect another great season…but numbers that don’t equate to an MVP.

2. Phillip Rivers—San Diego Chargers—8/1

The Chargers are a chic pick to win the Super Bowl and the big reason for that is QB Phillip Rivers.

The 29-year-old has been the model of consistency over the last three seasons, throwing for at least 4,000 yards and 28 TDs in each season. He finally has a healthy Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson at his disposal after spending the last two years making do with a less than stellar group of backups.

If the Chargers run away with the AFC West and Rivers continues to put up the same numbers…he will be right in the thick of things in the MVP race.

1. Matt Ryan—Atlanta Falcons—5/1

This is the year everything comes together.

Entering his fourth season in the league, the training wheels are completely off. This is his team and the Falcons will live and die by the play of Ryan.

His numbers have gone up each and every year in the league and it’s time for him to take the next step.

He has a superstar in his prime with Roddy White to throw the ball to, and another incredibly dangerous weapon in rookie Julio Jones.

Jones will spread the field and be that No. 2 receiver the Falcons were missing last season.

Expect Ryan to lead the NFL in passing yards and be right there for TD passes as well.

It’s going to be a huge season for Ryan and one that I feel will end in an MVP trophy.