MLB: Ranking the Seasons of the 30 Opening Day Starting Pitchers

The Opening Day starting pitcher for an MLB club is, in theory, the "ace" of the staff.

The optimism of the Hot Stove League and spring training begins to take tangible form, to a great degree, through the efforts of these guys.

One has been on the shelf since May.

One got traded at the deadline.

And one was unceremoniously shipped out to Triple-A in early July.

But which one of these players has shouldered the hopes of his team and fan base most effectively?

Abacus Reveals the ranking of the seasons for the 30 MLB Opening Day starters.

The Criteria

(Be aware, all data used in this analysis is current and complete through Sunday, August 28, 2011.)

Criterion No. 1 corresponds to endurance.  How many times has the starter worked through a game's seventh inning?  Now add to these "Long Starts" the number of complete games he has earned.  Simple enough, huh?

Criterion No. 2 is even simpler—Earned Run Average.

Criterion No. 3 involves a comparison of each starter's season-to-date with the team's overall performance.  Let's call it the Abacus Index.

We'll identify the pitcher's won-loss record in his starts (decisions from relief appearances not allowed), as well as the team's record in all starts (including his no-decisions).  Simply take the average of these two percentages; then just subtract the team's winning percentage.

Example A:  27 starts—player (11-4, .733), team (14-13, .519); team overall (81-54, .600).  So, the equation becomes: [(733 + 519) / 2] - 600 = 626 - 600 = +26.  {Shaun Marcum, Milwaukee}

Example B: 23 starts—player (5-11, .313), team (10-13, .435); team overall (59-72, .450).  The calculation this time: {(313 + 435) / 2} - 450 = 374 - 450 = -76.  {Chris Volstad, Florida}

The 30 pitchers are ranked in each criterion, and the criteria are weighted as shown here:

Criterion	Rank	Weight	Score
1	14	1	14
2	3	2	6
3	8	3	24

This pitcher would have 14 + 6 + 24 or 44 points.  Naturally, like golf, low score wins this little game.

The Abacus, you see, deals not with opinion, but with data.

Let's see what this data reveals.

Incomplete, Though Impressive

Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins

Johnson only managed nine starts this season before suffering shoulder inflammation during his May 16 start against the Mets.

To that point, he'd worked six long starts, racked up a 1.64 ERA, and had an Abacus Index rating of +109.

The numbers, even without any additional long starts or complete games would rank him No. 8 on this list, and comparable durability to the start of his season would easily have moved him into the Top Five.

Medical opinions, including one from the most frightening three words (Doctor, James, and Andrews) known to any hurting athlete, report no structural damage to that shoulder.

So let's hope the 28-year-old Johnson is good-to-go for 2012.

No. 29 Derek Lowe, Atlanta Braves

Player	Team	Overall
8-12, .400	14-14, .400	79-54, .594

Criterion No. 1—3 LS's, 0 CG's, Ranking 29

Criterion No. 2—4.63 ERA, Ranking 22

Criterion No.3—450 - 594 = -144, Ranking 29

Point Total—160

No. 28 Fausto Carmona, Cleveland Indians

Player	Team	Overall
6-12, .333	12-14, .462	65-65, .500

Criterion No. 1—11 LS's, 0 CG's, Ranking 20.5 (tied for 20th)

Criterion No. 2—4.85 ERA, Ranking 27

Criterion No. 3—398 - 500 = -102, Ranking 27

Point Total—155.5

No. 27 Brett Myers, Houston Astros

Player	Team	Overall
3-13, .188	8-20, .286	44-90, .328

Criterion No. 1—10 LS's, 2 CG's, Ranking 18.5 (tied for 18th)

Criterion No. 2—4.81 ERA, Ranking 26

Criterion No. 3—237 - 328 = -91, Ranking 26

Point Total—148.5

No. 26 Livan Hernandez, Washington Nationals

Player	Team	Overall
7-12, .368	9-18, .333	62-70, .470

Criterion No. 1—8 LS's, 1 CG, Ranking 25

Criterion No. 2—4.36 ERA, Ranking 18

Criterion No. 3—351 - 470 = -119, Ranking 28

Point Total—145

No. 25 Edison Volquez, Cincinnati Reds

Player	Team	Overall
5-4, .556	8-8, .500	67-66, .504

Criterion No. 1—1 LS, 0 CG's, Ranking 29

Criterion No. 2—5.93 ERA, Ranking 29

Criterion No. 3—528 - 504 = +24, Ranking 17

Point Total—139

Volquez was demoted to Triple-A in early July, and has not pitched for the Reds since.

No. 24 Mike Pelfrey, New York Mets

Player	Team	Overall
7-10, .412	10-17, .370	62-68, .477

Criterion No. 1—7 LS's, 2 CG's, Ranking 25

Criterion No. 2—4.60 ERA, Ranking 20

Criterion No. 3—391 - 477 = -86, Ranking 24

Point Total—137

No. 23 Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies / Cleveland Indians

	Player	Team	Overall
Colorado	6-9, .400	8-13, .381	51-56, .477
Cleveland	2-1, .667	2-2, .500	10-11, .476
Total	8-10, .444	10-15, .400	61-67, .477

Criterion No. 1—9 LS's, 2 CG's, Ranking 20.5 (tied for 20th)

Criterion No. 2—4.71 ERA, Ranking 23

Criterion No. 3—422 - 477 = -55, Ranking 22

Point Total—132.5

No. 22 Jeremy Guthrie, Baltimore Orioles

Player	Team	Overall
6-15, .286	9-17, .346	53-78, .405

Criterion No. 1—14 LS's, 2 CG's, Ranking 12.5 (tied for 12th)

Criterion No. 2—4.42 ERA, Ranking 19

Criterion No. 3—316 - 405 = -89, Ranking 25

Point Total—125.5

No. 21 Kevin Correia, Pittsburgh Pirates

Player	Team	Overall
12-11, .522	14-12, .538	62-71, .466

Criterion No. 1—4 LS's, 1 CG, Ranking 28

Criterion No. 2—4.79 ERA, Ranking 25

Criterion No. 3—530 - 466 = +64, Ranking 12

Point Total—114

No. 20 Carl Pavano, Minnesota Twins

Player	Team	Overall
6-11, .353	11-16, .407	56-77, .421

Criterion No. 1—17 LS's, 2 CG's, Ranking 7

Criterion No. 2—4.62 ERA, Ranking 21

Criterion No. 3—380 - 421 = -41, Ranking 21

Point Total—112

No. 19 Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals

Player	Team	Overall
8-9, .471	12-16, .429	70-64, .522

Criterion No. 1—16 LS's, 2 CG's, Ranking 9

Criterion No. 2—3.76 ERA, Ranking 16

Criterion No. 3—450 - 522 = -72, Ranking 23

Point Total—110

No. 18 Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics

Player	Team	Overall
9-11, .450	11-16, .407	60-73, .451

Criterion No. 1—14 LS's, 0 CG's, Ranking 17

Criterion No. 2—4.13 ERA, Ranking 17

Criterion No. 3—429 - 451 = -22, Ranking 19

Point Total—108

No. 17 Tim Stauffer, San Diego Padres

Player	Team	Overall
8-10, .444	13-14, .481	60-74, .448

Criterion No. 1—10 LS's, 0 CG's, Ranking 22.5 (tied for 22nd)

Criterion No. 2—3.42 ERA, Ranking 15

Criterion No. 3—463 - 448 = +15, Ranking 18

Point Total—106.5

No. 16 Luke Hochevar, Kansas City Royals

Player	Team	Overall
8-10, .444	14-13, .519	55-79, .410

Criterion No. 1—12 LS's, 0 CG's, Ranking 18.5 (tied for 18th)

Criterion No. 2—4.91 ERA, Ranking 28

Criterion No. 3—482 - 410 = +72, Ranking 10

Point Total—104.5

No. 15 David Price, Tampa Bay Rays

Player	Team	Overall
12-11, .522	15-13, .536	73-59, .553

Criterion No. 1—16 LS's, 0 CG's, Ranking 14

Criterion No. 2—3.40 ERA, Ranking 14

Criterion No. 3—529 - 553 = -24, Ranking 20

Point Total—102

No. 14 Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs

Player	Team	Overall
10-10, .500	16-12, .571	57-77, .425

Criterion No. 1—9 LS's, 0 CG's, Ranking 25

Criterion No. 2—4.76 ERA, Ranking 24

Criterion No. 3—536 - 425 = +111, Ranking 7

Point Total—94

No. 13 Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers

Player	Team	Overall
15-8, .652	17-11, .607	81-54, .600

Criterion No. 1—14 LS's, 1 CG's, Ranking 15.5 (tied for 15th)

Criterion No. 2—3.37 ERA, Ranking 12.5 (tied for 12th)

Criterion No. 3—630 - 600 = +30, Ranking 16

Point Total—88.5

No. 12 Jon Lester, Boston Red sox

Player	Team	Overall
14-6, .700	15-10, .600	82-51, .617

Criterion No. 1—10 LS's, 0 CG's, Ranking 22.5 (tied for 22nd)

Criterion No. 2—3.09 ERA, Ranking 9

Criterion No. 3—650 - 617 = +33, Ranking 15

Point Total—85.5

No. 11 C. J. Wilson, Texas Rangers

Player	Team	Overall
13-6, .684	16-12, .571	76-59, .563

Criterion No. 1—15 LS's, 2 CG's, Ranking 11

Criterion No. 2—3.29 ERA, Ranking 11

Criterion No. 3—628 - 563 = +65, Ranking 11

Point Total—66

No. 10 Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants

Player	Team	Overall
12-10, .545	16-11, .593	71-63, .530

Criterion No. 1—15 LS's, 1 CG, Ranking 12.5 (tied for 12th)

Criterion No. 2—2.46 ERA, Ranking 3

Criterion No. 3—569 - 530 = + 39, Ranking 14

Point Total—60.5

No. 9 Ricky Romero, Toronto Blue Jays

Player	Team	Overall
12-9, .571	14-12, .538	66-67, .496

Criterion No. 1—18 LS's, 4 CG's, Ranking  5.5 (tied for 5th)

Criterion No. 2—2.78 ERA, Ranking 6

Criterion No. 3—555 - 496 = +59, Ranking 13

Point Total—56.5

No. 8 Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

Player	Team	Overall
12-11, .522	15-13, .536	56-76, .424

Criterion No. 1—20 LS's, 3 CG's, Ranking 4

Criterion No. 2—3.37 ERA, Ranking 12.5 (tied for 12th)

Criterion No. 3—529 - 424 = +105, Ranking 8

Point Total—53

No. 7 Mark Buehrle, Chicago White sox

Player	Team	Overall
10-6, .625	16-9, .640	66-65, .504

Criterion No. 1—15 LS's, 0 CG's, Ranking 15.5 (tied for 15th)

Criterion No. 2—3.19 ERA, Ranking 10

Criterion No. 3—633 - 504 = +129, Ranking 4

Point Total—47.5

No. 6 CC Sabathia, New York Yankees

Player	Team	Overall
17-7, .708	19-9, .679	79-52, .603

Criterion No. 1—21 LS's, 3 CG's, Ranking 3

Criterion No. 2—2.99 ERA, Ranking 7

Criterion No. 3—694 - 603 = +91, Ranking 9

Point Total—44

No. 5 Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks

Player	Team	Overall
17-4, .810	20-7, .741	75-59, .560

Criterion No. 1—17 LS's, 1 CG, Ranking 9

Criterion No. 2—3.03 ERA, Ranking 8

Criterion No. 3—776 - 560 = +216, Ranking 2

Point Total—31

No. 4 Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies

Player	Team	Overall
15-5, .750	20-6, .769	83-46, .643

Criterion No. 1—20 LS's, 7 CG's, Ranking 1

Criterion No. 2—2.56 ERA, Ranking 5

Criterion No. 3—760 - 643 = +117, Ranking 6

Point Total—29

No. 3 Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels

Player	Team	Overall
15-7, .682	18-10, .643	72-61, .541

Criterion No. 1—18 LS's, 4 CG's, Ranking 5.5 (tied for 5th)

Criterion No. 2—2.28 ERA, Ranking 1

Criterion No. 3—663 - 541 = +122, Ranking 5

Point Total—22.5

No. 2 Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Player	Team	Overall
16-5, .762	18-9, .667	62-70, .470

Criterion No. 1—14 LS's, 4 CG's, Ranking 9

Criterion No. 2—2.51 ERA, Ranking 4

Criterion No. 3—715 - 470 = +245, Ranking 1

Point Total—20

No. 1 Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

Player	Team	Overall
20-5, .800	21-8, .724	73-60, .549

Criterion No. 1—22 LS's, 4 CG's, Ranking 2

Criterion No. 2—2.38 ERA, Ranking 2

Criterion No. 3—762 - 549 = +213, Ranking 3

Point Total—15