2011 Fantasy Football Running Backs Rankings: ESPN vs. Yahoo ADP Values

A fine example of the drastic differences between ESPN and Yahoo ADP trends can be found with running back Shonn Greene. On ESPN, Greene’s ADP stands in at 63.4, but on Yahoo, he’s going much higher than that as he’s listed at a 29.6 value.

Not all the running backs listed between the two sites have this gap, but you can find others like Jahvid Best who is going at 48.8 on ESPN, but landing way down at 83.8 in Yahoo drafts.

I’m not the biggest believer in basing ADP trends to determine my personal rankings, but I’ve found over the years, that those who play regularly on one hosting site, tend to follow these trends, when selecting players for their squads.

Maybe it’s because sites like ESPN or Yahoo have a player simply listed higher or lower on their player listings, that helps determine where most average fantasy owners will select a player.

What I mean by that is, because they see Greene listed close to a top-20 option on one site, the average fantasy owner will think that is the next-best runner to draft (or it’s just the computer drafting), therefore they select them. Change his ranking on another site like ESPN, and that same fantasy owner, might wait to take them, in a mock draft or even a real-live draft.

Right or wrong, this type of reasoning can help determine ADP results, which is why, it’s interesting to take a look at ADP values, to read the trends, but you shouldn’t put major stock into their results.

Overvalued

Maurice Jones-Drew: ESPN 8.0, Yahoo 16.7—Clearly, MJD’s ADP value on Yahoo is more acceptable, but I strongly recommend you look to him as nothing more than a second-round option this year.

Coming off microfracture knee surgery, Jones-Drew likely won’t look like his old self, and it’s likely he won’t play a down in the preseason. If you must have MJD on your team, it’s advisable that you snag Rashad Jennings in the later rounds as a handcuff.

Ryan Grant: ESPN ADP 53.0, Yahoo ADP 87.8—Look to Ryan Grant’s ADP as listed on Yahoo as fair value this summer. The veteran has struggled to come back from his ankle injury that cost him, basically the entire 2010 season.

With James Starks breathing down his neck and rookie Alex Green playing well, Grant is going to have a hard time find weekly success for fantasy owners.

At best, Grant should be viewed as a depth option for your team, and you should look to him no higher than your RB4 this summer.

Undervalued

Beanie Wells: ESPN ADP 58.9, Yahoo ADP 106.7—With Ryan Williams gone for the season, it’s time to believe in Beanie Wells as an option that is worthy over your RB3 at summer drafts. Wells' ADP value in ESPN leagues is about right as he stands in at 58.9, which puts him around the sixth round.

In Yahoo leagues, Wells' ADP value is way down, and I expect his actual draft day value to land somewhere around a sixth- to seventh-round pick in those leagues. I’m sure many of your don’t believe that Wells has what it takes to be a fantasy starter, but the bottom line for Wells’ failures in 2010 is because he suffered a knee injury in the fourth preseason game, and his quarterback situation was horrible.

Give Wells another chance and he will give you solid numbers this year, as Kevin Kolb will help this team win games, and his presence will keep this offense productive.

Mark Ingram: ESPN ADP 66.7, Yahoo 77.4—Those of you that have followed my work over the summer are probably tired of hearing about Mark Ingram, but this rookie is simply undervalued. Sure, maybe the Saints will use a RBBC to start the season, but Ingram is going to be the goal-line runner in this offense, and will take over the majority of touches by the end of September.

 Pierre Thomas has struggled to stay healthy in recent years, and I have no confidence that he will stay on the field for a full season. Look to Ingram as a must-have RB3 from the sixth round down.

Marshawn Lynch: ESPN ADP 79.6, Yahoo ADP 92.6—Sure, the Seahawks are going to be below average as a passing team,but they should have success on the ground. The additions of offensive line coach Tom Cable and left guard Robert Gallary will only help Lynch to be a productive flex-play option.

Going somewhere around the eighth to 10th round in ESPN and Yahoo leagues, Lynch is a great value pick to add on the depth of your squad. It also doesn’t hurt that Lynch gets the Cardinals and Rams in his division.

More ESPN vs. Yahoo ADP Values – QB | RB | WR | TE 

		ESPN ADP	Yahoo ADP
1	Adrian Peterson	1.7	2.3
2	Arian Foster	2.7	1.5
3	Chris Johnson	4.8	5.0
4	Jamaal Charles	5.6	4.7
5	Ray Rice	7.1	6.6
6	Maurice Jones-Drew	8.4	16.7
7	LeSean McCoy	10.5	13.6
8	Rashard Mendenhall	12.7	10.3
9	Michael Turner	15.6	8.0
10	Frank Gore	16.5	22.8
11	Steven Jackson	20.8	29.6
12	Darren McFadden	23.0	14.4
13	Peyton Hillis	25.3	28.9
14	Matt Forte	28.5	29.6
15	DeAngelo Williams	33.3	62.4
16	Ahmad Bradshaw	35.5	38.9
17	LeGarrette Blount	36.5	47.2
18	Knowshon Moreno	41.5	84.6
19	Felix Jones	45.8	92.4
20	Jahvid Best	48.8	83.8
21	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	49.0	82.3
22	Jonathan Stewart	50.7	95.3
23	Ryan Grant	53.0	87.8
24	Beanie Wells	58.9	106.7
25	Ryan Mathews	60.5	69.8
26	Shonn Greene	63.4	29.6
27	Mark Ingram	66.7	77.4
28	Cedric Benson	68.7	88.0
29	Fred Jackson	76.9	96.8
30	Marshawn Lynch	79.6	92.6
31	Daniel Thomas	81.7	84.5
32	Joseph Addai	87.0	104.0
33	Pierre Thomas	89.2	118.6
34	Mike Tolbert	92.4	105.3
35	Brandon Jacobs	98.9	116.8
36	Tim Hightower	99.6	113.3

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