Two Pitchers, One City: Why John Danks and Matt Garza Aren't Losing Pitchers

Playing for Chicago baseball teams isn’t the only thing Matt Garza and John Danks have in common.  Two top of the rotation starting pitchers came into the 2011 baseball season with high hopes for themselves and their teams.  Neither team has lived up to those expectations, and neither pitcher’s record shows just of what they are capable. 

Garza is a power pitcher throwing fastballs in the mid to upper 90s while John Danks has been under the watchful eye of Mark Buehrle.  Danks has taken a page out of Buehrle’s book by working fast and varying speeds.  Danks’ slider is the equivalent of Buehrle’s change-up in the sense that it’s hard to read and looks faster coming to the plate than it actually is.  Danks has followed suit among some of MLB’s starters and developed an above average cutter as well.  Other than that, these pitchers are very comparable in terms of this season’s shortcomings.

Coming into their starts on August 20^th, both pitchers held records of 5-9.  Danks got off to a brutal 0-8 start through his first 11 games.  Garza didn’t fare as bad as Danks, but his record wasn’t much better at 2-6 through 11.  Much of the pitchers’ misfortunes can be blamed on the lack of offense and bullpen instability.  For example, Danks left a game against the, at the time, winless Tampa Bay Rays April 8^th with a 5-3 lead after six.  Matt Thornton picked up his second blown save of the week that game and the team gave the Rays their first win of the season.  He pitched even better on his start April 13^th.  Danks went eight innings and left with a 4-1 lead over the offensively challenged Oakland Athletics.  Thornton would once again blow the save and the Sox gave up six runs in the ninth and tenth innings combined.   The offense didn’t help the young pitchers either.  The Cubs mustered up 11 runs in Garza’s first six losses while the Sox did slightly better scoring 14 in Danks’ first eight losses.

Both pitchers have spent time on the disabled list this season, but both have also stuck around in their appearances and given it their all every time they have taken the mound.  Both had ERAs under 4 (Danks with a 3.95 and Garza at 3.80).  Garza has a decisive edge in strikeouts as well he should being a hard thrower.  Their WHIP is under 1.5 and walks under 50.  With stats like that, they really shouldn’t have losing records. 

There are two things baseball fans can take away from this.  Stats like wins and losses aren’t all they are cracked up to be.  Danks has 17 quality starts out of his 21.  Garza has 17 out of 24.  The quality start isn’t exactly the most reliable of statistics, but the stat does hold some merit in this discussion.  So, does that mean whatever reliever was on when the game winning run scored should be credited with the win?  Statisticians might as well just give the win to the hitter who got the go-ahead hit or the runner who scored on that hit.     

The other takeaway has been repeated over and over and will be until the end of time.  If a runner gets into scoring position, you do whatever it takes to get him over.  If it means taking more pitches, take more pitches.  If it means bunting, bunt.  Unfortunately, situational hitting cannot be taught by a hitting coach.  Patience is a virtue and oft under emphasized in baseball. 

Matt Garza got his sixth win and racked up yet another quality start in a 3-0 shutout of the St. Louis Cardinals August 20th.  John Danks racked up yet another no decision and left his start against Texas with the game tied at two, which the Sox would eventually win.

Danks and Garza should both have better records and deserve to have better records than what they do.  The question is, what to do with them, and for how long?  Given the factors listed above, if you the reader can be GM for a day, which one of these two pitchers would you sit down and get a deal worked out with?