Fantasy Fallout: Holliday to the Athletics for Three Questionable Prospects

The Colorado Rockies and the Oakland Athletics have agreed to a massive trade, involving one of the league’s top superstar players, Matt Holliday. This deal comes as somewhat of a surprise to everyone around the league, as the Athletics were clearly in a rebuilding mode. However, some fantasy owners around the country are wondering exactly how the fantasy value of the players in the trade will be affected.

Matt Holliday is a name very familiar to fantasy owners, as he is clearly among the league’s elite outfielders. Statistically, this guy brings everything to the table. In 539 at-bats last year, he hit .321, with 107 runs, 25 home runs, 88 RBI, and 28 stolen bases. The 28-year-old outfielder appears to be in the true prime of his career and should provide an elite bat in an otherwise anemic Athletic lineup.

The Athletics struggled mightily on offense last year, generating only 646 total runs with a .318 on-base percentage—a far cry from the Moneyball days. Likewise, the Rockies were fairly efficient, with a .336 team on-base percentage.

Holliday is an on-base machine, posting OBPs of .405 and .409 in the last two seasons.  Despite his strong OBP abilities, he may struggle to drive runs in. Expect a modest drop in his RBI numbers, but all of his other numbers should remain similar to his 2008 numbers.

Huston Street, the Athletics' former closer, is a key part of this deal for Colorado. The winner of the 2005 A.L. Rookie of the Year Award, Street is not going to be nearly as good of a deal for the Rockies as they are hoping he will be. Street was 18-25 on save opportunities last year and battled injuries early and often.

Perhaps the most telling stat regarding Street is his drastic fall in K/BB ratio. After posting K/BB ratios of 5.2 and 5.3 in 2006 and 2007, it dropped to 2.6 in 2008. He walked 3.4 batters per nine innings and struggled with his control often.

Despite Street being at such a young age, I dislike his injury history and numbers. He may be drafted next year in fantasy drafts, but you should pass or take a late-round flyer on him.

Gregory Smith, a starting pitcher, is another youngster involved in this deal, and his skill set is mightily disturbing. Despite putting up a serviceable 4.01 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, his K/BB ratio was absolutely terrible. He struck out 5.2 batters per nine innings, showing that he was not the most dominant pitcher.

However, when you combine that with 4.2 walked batters per nine innings, Smith is simply not a good pitcher. His 2008 record was 8-16.

Moving to Coors will certainly hurt his value significantly, as his control is well below average. Despite being at the young age of 24, I project Smith to be no more than a solid fourth starter when he hits his potential, if he ever makes it there.

Carlos Gonzalez, another key piece of the trade, looks to be a solid investment for the Rockies and the only true value from this trade. Gonzalez, a former top prospect, is simply too green to be playing in the majors.

At the ripe age of 23, he has lots of time to work out any kinks at the Triple-A level before he makes the move to Coors. I project Gonzalez to be a Torii Hunter-like player, and he will bring solid power and speed numbers to fantasy owners. If you are in a keeper league, this guy is a fantastic investment.

All in all, the trade looks like a true fleecing for the Athletics. They are getting a league superstar for a top, unproven, center-field prospect and two pitchers who have very questionable futures.

If the Athletics fall out of the race early, they could trade Holliday and upgrade their prospect pool. However, don’t be surprised to see the Athletics contend with Holliday anchoring their lineup. For fantasy owners, the value of these players remains relatively unchanged.