Stud or Bust? Is Peyton Hillis a Top 10 Fantasy Football RB?

Peyton Hillis had an amazing season in 2010. He was traded to the Cleveland Browns for “do-nothing” quarterback Brady Quinn in the beginning of the season, and he proceeded to take the fantasy world by storm. Undrafted in most leagues, Hillis went on a tear during the middle of the season that won fantasy football championships for anyone wise enough to invest in him via the waiver wire.

At times last season, Hillis was the #1 fantasy football scorer at the RB position. Even on mediocre weeks during the meat of the season, his production placed him inside the top 10 for the RB position during the meaningful part of the fantasy football season – so why do many fantasy football sites place Hillis outside the top 15 in their 2011 fantasy football rankings?

Peyton Hillis saw his production taper off dramatically in the month of December. A little research shows us that this is a product of two factors.

• The number of opportunities that Hillis had in December drops off sharply.
• His fantasy points per opportunity score dropped to a very regular 0.5 or below.

Without context, these factors are likely misleading and skewing his perceived value in 2011.

• It is likely that the Browns took their new poster boy out of harms way as the season became meaningless for them.
• The Browns ran a very vanilla offense and went into turtle mode in December.

Reasons for Optimism for the 2011 Season

• The Browns will return a healthy Montario Hardesty. At first blush, some half hearted experts might believe that this will decrease Hillis’ fantasy value because he will loose handoffs to the talented, yet oft-injured Hardesty. They are correct…but only in part. Hillis will loose a few touches each week – but having a strong horse to work alongside of Hillis will give him additional high-value opportunities (ie., red zone carries.)
• Additionally, sharing the physical burden will allow Hillis to stay fresher, longer which should avoid the December swoon of 2010.
• The Cleveland front office has stated that Peyton Hillis will be their feature RB in 2011, and that Hardesty will compete for the second role. So there is very little risk of Hillis losing much value to Hardesty.
• The offensive line returns intact and will remain one of the best units in the league in 2011. Featuring All-Pro left tackle Joe Thomas and center Alex Mack, this unit should get stronger play out of the right side of the line which will help open additional holes for the running game.
• Perhaps most importantly, Cleveland’s offense will be stronger with QB Colt McCoy under center. McCoy has had a full season to digest the team’s offense, and showed flashes of brilliance when given the chance to start. The Browns still need to upgrade the weapons at wide receiver but the addition of 2nd round pick Greg Little adds a potential #1 WR to the stable.

Does Peyton Hillis deserve a spot in the Top 10 in  your fantasy football rankings (at the RB position) in 2011? Short answer: Yes.

Hillis should eclipse 1,050 yards and 8 TDs if he stays healthy.  I also like him to mix in 45 receptions for 450 yards and two scores through the air. 

That projection makes him a Tier Two RB, and a strong RB1 and RB2 in PPR formats