With qualifying offer extended, how far does Portland go to keep Greg Oden?

The Portland Trail Blazers have taken the first step to keep Greg Oden. Will they do enough now to keep him? (AP Photo/Colin E Braley)

Finally confirmed by the team, the Portland Trail Blazers extended an $8.8 million qualifying offer to oft-injured center Greg Oden. If he signs it he will make that amount for next season. If he doesn’t he will be a restricted free-agent, and Portland will have the chance to match any offer made to him. He can also exclusively negotiate a deal with the Blazers.

The thought is that he will not sign the qualifying offer and become a restricted free-agent, so with that in mind, the question must be asked: how badly does Portland want to keep him?

There is the distinct possibility that this upcoming season will be locked out, with the players and owners far apart in negotiations. This would be terrible for the league, which is coming off a very highly rated and successful season. And it would put a halt to any negotiations between player and team. This means that Portland, and any other suitor, would have to wait until after the lockout to start talks. The two sides won’t agree before the deadline at midnight on Thursday night. It’s just not going to happen. What affect will this have on the Blazers and Greg Oden?

I don’t envision the team offering him more than a three-year contract once they are able to negotiate. His talent may be worth more, but his fragility and constant injuries make him worth much less. It is clear the team wants him to succeed, and do so in a Blazers uniform. Yet, if Portland doesn’t make the highest bid would he leave money on the table and stay?

As The Oregonian‘s Jason Quick documents, Miller had nothing but nice things to say about the former number-one overall pick:

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“At the end of the day, it’s not Greg’s fault that he has not been able to be healthy.” Miller said. “He has caught some bad breaks. But we still believe in Greg.

“At this point, we are not going to give up on him,” Miller said. “When we drafted him, we believed – as did most people around the NBA – that he is a game changer. And he has shown us in some of the games when he was healthy, we still believe that he can help us win. So based on what we believe Greg can bring to the table, it was not a difficult decision for us.”

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They have reason to have such a positive outlook on Oden. When he has been on the court he has been intimidating and one of the more efficient and dominating front-line players in the NBA.

Sports Illustrated‘s Zach Lowe shared his thoughts on Oden–thoughts I tend to agree with:

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“And for what it’s worth, over 21 games in 2009-10 Oden put up a Player Efficiency Rating that would have fallen right between those of Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Gasol this past season. He improved his finishing and free-throw shooting, and he showed himself to be the rebounding monster and game-changing defender we all thought he could be. That player is a difference-maker, and probably worth a short-term deal, even if he may sit on the bench for the duration of it. The Blazers have just shy of $70 million in salary committed next season before any money for Oden is included, so it’s not as if the Blazers would sacrifice a chance to pounce in free agency by tossing a few more million Oden’s way.”

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Given he has played 82 games in four years, signing him to any deal is risk. But it’s a risk worth taking. He needs the Blazers and, given the team’s lack of depth inside and how strongly the front office feels about him, the Blazers need him.