MLB 2011: 10 Bold Predictions for the Second Half of the Season

The 2011 season has already seen its fair share of surprises, but with more than half a season remaining on the schedule, much still needs to be decided.

The first half of the season is a good evaluator when it comes to teams in contention and players meeting expectations.  But the second half of the MLB season is really when the best baseball is played.  Pretenders will be separated from contenders, division races will boil down to the finish line, and MVPs will shine when called upon.

That being said, here are 10 bold predictions for the second half of the 2011 MLB season.

Paul Konerko Will Win the AL MVP

Adrian Gonzalez has had one incredible first half as a member of the Boston Red Sox, but White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko truly personifies what an MVP means to his team.

Konerko leads the White Sox in batting, hits, home runs, RBI, OBP and slugging percentage.  Gonzalez might have slightly better numbers when it comes to batting, but Konerko’s value to his team is nearly immeasurable. 

Konerko has more walks and less strikeouts compared to Gonzalez, all while having half the protection in his lineup.  Gonzalez will get his, but the White Sox captain deserves this one.

Prince Fielder Will Win the NL MVP

The Milwaukee Brewers stand alone in first place in the NL Central, and Prince Fielder is one of the reasons why they will remain in contention until season's end.

Prince Fielder has been consistent and clutch all year for the Brew Crew, as he currently leads the National League in home runs and RBI.  Fielder isn't just a power hitter—at least not this year—as he continues to draw walks and maintain a batting average of about .300.

One stat that seems to get overlooked when analysts judge how valuable a player is to his team is number of games played.  If you are expected to help carry an offense, you need to be on the field and in the lineup a great majority of the time.  Fielder has yet to miss a game for the Brewers this season.

You can also look at Fielder's WAR rating compared to Milwaukee's current lead in the NL Central. They remain three games clear of St. Louis and four games in front of Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. Fielder's WAR rating is 3.9, making him solely responsible for four wins and their current first place position.

Look for Fielder to explode in the second half when feasting on the weak pitching in his division. 

Justin Verlander Will Win the AL Cy Young

There are many legitimate candidates for the Cy Young Award in the American League, such as CC Sabathia of the Yankees, Jered Weaver of the Angels and James Shields of Tampa Bay.  But the one guy that will elevate himself above the rest is Detroit starting pitcher Justin Verlander.  

Verlander seems to get overlooked at times due to the lack of quality ball clubs in this year's AL Central, but don't let the lesser foes fool you.

Verlander leads the American League in wins and strikeouts and carries a miniscule 2.38 ERA.  He already has one no-hitter and nearly got a second.

What really makes Verlander prime for an even better second half is the fact that he leads all the majors in innings pitched but has only given up 81 hits.  That number is astonishing when comparing it the other AL Cy Young candidates. 

Jair Jurrjens Will Win the NL Cy Young

Anybody but Roy Halladay winning the NL Cy Young is a pretty bold prediction in my opinion.  But Jair Jurrjens of the Atlanta Braves has the numbers and consistency to continue his torrid pace into the second half of the season.

What makes Jurrjens my favorite candidate for NL Cy Young is his incredible efficiency.  He has four less starts than Halladay but the same amount of wins.  He also has only pitched 95.2 innings to date, which indicates an arm that can handle the workload down the stretch.

Jurrjens isn't even a strikeout pitcher but somehow has maintained the incredible control that supports his impressive 2.07 ERA.

Jurrjens best days are ahead of him, but this award will usher him into national prominence. 

Both ROY Awards Will Be Handed to Pitchers

AL Rookie of the Year - SP Michael Pineda (Seattle Mariners)

NL Rookie of the Year - SP Dillon Gee (New York Mets)

Both these starting rookies have been quite the surprise for their respective ball clubs and have put up better than quality major league stats.

Dillon Gee has been nothing short of brilliant for the Mets. He started in the bullpen and moved to the starting rotation, where he has compiled an 8-1 record, with a 3.32 ERA.

Pineda, on the other hand, has quietly been a gem so far in the Mariners' starting rotation. While his 7-4 record and 2.45 ERA are both very impressive, his physical appearance is what strikes fear in opposing batters.

The 22-year-old Dominican native stands 6'7" and weighs 260 pounds.  That's a lot of power being hurled toward the plate. 

Boston Will Win the AL East, Tampa Bay Will Win the AL Wild Card

If the title of this slide doesn't indicate the boldness of this prediction, let me make it clear to you.  If Boston wins the AL East and Tampa Bay secures the Wild Card, that leaves the mighty New York Yankees at home during postseason play.

The current standings show the Yankees on top of the division by a half a game over the Red Sox and two games clear of the Rays.

Boston has all the tools to take the division.  Great pitching, timely hitting and the intangibles in the field and on the bases.  Their second half is relatively balanced when it comes to opponents and home/away games.

Tampa Bay will play its majority of games at home the second half of the season, and New York will play more road games.  Tampa hasn't been all that great at home, holding an even 18-18 record.  But the Trop has its advantages, which Tampa needs to take advantage of.

There are too many questions facing the New York pitching staff to have me think they will continue the pace they have set in the first half of the season.  Colon and Garcia are old, and Nova is unproven.  

Look for Tampa to clinch the Wild Card during the last series of the regular season.  That series will be against the Yankees in Tropicana Field.

Detroit Will Win the AL Central

Following their victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Detroit Tigers find themselves all alone atop the AL Central Division.

Detroit will not relinquish this lead for the rest of the year for a couple of reasons.

Cleveland's pitching is starting to give way, and their best hitter (Shin Soo Choo) is on the disabled list for the next six weeks.

Chicago has the team on paper but can't seem to match timely hitting with good pitching.  We have seen flashes of both, but the absolute inconsistency from the White Sox offense will be the end of them.  Plus the fact that Adam Dunn is having the season he's having just adds salt to the open wound of the Chicago White Sox.

Detroit has the ability to run away and hide atop the AL Central.  I think they will do just that.

Jorge Posada Will Finish the Season with a BA Above .250

Ever since Jorge Posada's walk-out incident, he has been a new player.  Manager Joe Girardi has since restored faith in the former catcher and current DH, and the Yankee fans have been urging him onward.  

Getting booed doesn't help a players confidence—just as Adam Dunn—but getting cheered can elevate a player from a slump.  Jorge Posada has been elevated.

Throughout the first two months of the year, all Jorge produced were numerous outs with a few scattered long balls.  He also found his batting average consistently under .200.

But then the month of June hit, and as the temperature rose, so did the batting average of Mr. Posada. Jorge has hit nearly .400 this month and doesn't look to be slowing down anytime soon.  His current average is .234 and will continue to rise above .250 during the second half of the season.

The Cubs Will Fire Mike Quade

The hiring of Mike Quade at the end of his interim stint with the Cubs left a lot of people wondering why candidates—such as Ryne Sandberg—weren't better suited for the position.

Quade was successful in the Cubs' final 37 games of the season, posting a 23-14 mark.  However, there was very little, if any pressure on him to succeed in those final weeks.

But a new year brings new expectations, and those expectations might just be too much for the career minor league manager.  Whether it's the Cubs' awful record or Quade's inability to handle his clubhouse, Quade will be without a job at season's end.

You can't put all the blame for this season on Quade, but crucial mistakes on and off the field and the dissatisfaction of Cubs fans will push Quade out the door.  He is a great guy and a good baseball mind, but his managerial style is much better suited for the minor leagues.

Look for recently unemployed Jim Riggleman, who managed the Cubs prior to Don Baylor, as a potential replacement.

The Winner of Milwaukee vs. Philadelphia in the NLCS Will Win the World Series

Both teams have had a great run in the first half of the season and will continue their solid play throughout the second half and into the postseason.  Unfortunately, only one of these teams can play for it all, and that will be decided when they square of in the National League Championship Series.

How about this list of starters that will tow the mound for their teams.  Gallardo, Greinke, Wolf and Marcum versus Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Oswalt (who will be healthy at this point).  The batters they will be facing won't be too shabby either.

The power-oriented Brewers, with guys like Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks, will try to outscore a balanced Phillies attack that consists of names like Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco.

One of two things can and will decide this series.

If Raul Ibanez wakes up from his slump, he can be that extra bat that carries them to the World Series. But if Milwaukee can catch the Phillies and surpass their record, giving them home-field advantage, the Brewers can shock the world.  This is because the Brew Crew hold a 29-11 home record, best in the Majors.

My prediction is Philadelphia in six, mainly due to the five games that currently separate the two teams. Philadelphia is also no slouch at home, holding a 30-13 record at the Bank.